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Forecasting Spanish Elections

  • Pedro C. Magalhães

    ()

    (University of Lisbon, Social Sciences Institute)

  • Luís Francisco Aguiar

    ()

    (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)

  • Michael S. Lewis-Beck

    ()

    (University of Iowa)

Registered author(s):

    The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing research literature. However, no models have appeared to explain, or to forecast, national election outcomes. The presence of this research gap contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done on other leading Western democracies. Here we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises considerable prediction accuracy of Spanish general election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model, and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the 2012 general election.

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    File URL: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/docs/2011/NIPE_WP_17_2011.pdf
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    Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 17/2011.

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    Date of creation: 2011
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:17/2011
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal
    Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
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    Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
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