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Forecasting Spanish elections

Author

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  • Magalhães, Pedro C.
  • Aguiar-Conraria, Luís
  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S.

Abstract

The behavior of the individual Spanish voter has come to be rather well-understood, thanks to a growing body of literature. However, no models have appeared to explain or forecast national election outcomes. This gap in the research contrasts sharply with the extensive election forecasting work done in other leading Western democracies. Here, we fill this gap. The model, developed from core political economy theory, is parsimonious but statistically robust. Further, it promises a considerable level of prediction accuracy for legislative and European election outcomes, six months before the contest actually occurs. After presenting the model and carrying out extensive regression diagnostics, we offer an ex ante forecast of the November 2011 legislative election, then discuss the model and the forecast in light of what the actual election result turned out to be.

Suggested Citation

  • Magalhães, Pedro C. & Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2012. "Forecasting Spanish elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 769-776.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:28:y:2012:i:4:p:769-776
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.04.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bellucci, Paolo, 2010. "Election cycles and electoral forecasting in Italy, 1994-2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-67, January.
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    5. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521707404.
    6. Duch,Raymond M. & Stevenson,Randolph T., 2008. "The Economic Vote," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521881029.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Forecasting Spanish Elections: 2011 Spanish Pre-Election Report
      by Joshua Tucker in The Monkey Cage on 2011-09-21 23:51:53

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    Cited by:

    1. Fronzetti Colladon, Andrea, 2020. "Forecasting election results by studying brand importance in online news," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 414-427.
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    3. Aichholzer, Julian & Willmann, Johanna, 2014. "Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-64.
    4. Munzert, Simon, 2017. "Forecasting elections at the constituency level: A correction–combination procedure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 467-481.
    5. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2020. "Election forecasts: Cracking the Danish case," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 892-898.
    6. Andreas Graefe & Kesten C Green & J Scott Armstrong, 2019. "Accuracy gains from conservative forecasting: Tests using variations of 19 econometric models to predict 154 elections in 10 countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, January.

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