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A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

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  • Jones, Maggie E.C.
  • ßrregaard Nielsen, Morten
  • Ksawery Popiel, Michal

Abstract

We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relation- ship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long-run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conser- vative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long-run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Maggie E.C. & ßrregaard Nielsen, Morten & Ksawery Popiel, Michal, 2014. "A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274652, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:274652
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274652
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    Cited by:

    1. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.

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