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Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)

Author

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  • Federico Carlini

    (Università della Svizzera italiana)

  • Paolo Santucci de Magistris

    (LUISS University and Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

We study the theoretical properties of the model for fractional cointegration proposed by Granger (1986), namely the FVECM_{d,b}. First, we show that the stability of any discretetime stochastic system of the type Pi(L)Y_t = e_t can be assessed by means of the argument principle under mild regularity condition on Pi(L), where L is the lag operator. Second, we prove that, under stability, the FVECM_{d,b} allows for a representation of the solution that demonstrates the fractional and co-fractional properties and we find a closed-form expression for the impulse response functions. Third, we prove that the model is identified for any combination of number of lags and cointegration rank, while still being able to generate polynomial co-fractionality. In light of these properties, we show that the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator reconcile with those of the FCVAR_{d,b} model studied in Johansen and Nielsen (2012). Finally, an empirical illustration is provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico Carlini & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)," CREATES Research Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  • Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2019-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Hartl & Roland Weigand, 2018. "Multivariate Fractional Components Analysis," Papers 1812.09149, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fractional cointegration; Granger representation theorem; Stability; Identification; Impulse Response Functions; Profile Maximum Likelihood;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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