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Long-Run Identification in a Fractionally Integrated System

Author

Listed:
  • Rolf Tschernig
  • Enzo Weber
  • Roland Weigand

Abstract

We propose an extension of structural fractionally integrated vector autoregressive models that avoids certain undesirable effects on the impulse responses that occur if long-run identification restrictions are imposed. We derive the model's Granger representation and investigate the effects of long-run restrictions. Simulations illustrate that enforcing integer integration orders can have severe consequences for impulse responses. In a system of U.S. real output and aggregate prices, the effects of structural shocks strongly depend on the specification of the integration orders. In the statistically preferred fractional model, shocks that are typically interpreted as demand disturbances have a very brief influence on GDP. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.

Suggested Citation

  • Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber & Roland Weigand, 2013. "Long-Run Identification in a Fractionally Integrated System," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 438-450, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jnlbes:v:31:y:2013:i:4:p:438-450
    DOI: 10.1080/07350015.2013.812517
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    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends in unobserved components models," Papers 2005.03988, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    2. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "The role of initial values in nonstationary fractional time series models," Discussion Papers 12-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    3. Tobias Hartl & Roland Weigand, 2018. "Multivariate Fractional Components Analysis," Papers 1812.09149, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2019.
    4. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2015. "The Hours Worked–Productivity Puzzle: Identification In A Fractional Integration Setting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(7), pages 1593-1621, October.
    5. Tschernig, Rolf & Weber, Enzo & Weigand, Roland, 2014. "Long- versus medium-run identification in fractionally integrated VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 299-302.
    6. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2018. "Monetary policy shocks, inflation persistence, and long memory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 117-127.
    7. Yuliya Lovcha & Alejandro Perez-Laborda, 2017. "Structural shocks and dynamic elasticities in a long memory model of the US gasoline retail market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 405-422, September.
    8. Tobias Hartl, 2020. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Fractional Factor Models," Papers 2005.04897, arXiv.org.
    9. Federico Carlini & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)," CREATES Research Papers 2019-02, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    10. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series," Papers 2005.05266, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    11. Ross Doppelt & Keith O'Hara, 2018. "Bayesian Estimation of Fractionally Integrated Vector Autoregressions and an Application to Identified Technology Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 1212, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Johansen, Søren & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2016. "The Role Of Initial Values In Conditional Sum-Of-Squares Estimation Of Nonstationary Fractional Time Series Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(5), pages 1095-1139, October.
    13. Federico Carlini & Paolo Santucci de Magistris, 2019. "Resuscitating the co-fractional model of Granger (1986)," Discussion Papers 19/01, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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