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Une typologie des résultats électoraux basée sur le comportement des électeurs volatiles en Belgique

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  • Renaud Foucart
  • Marjorie Gassner
  • Emilie Van Haute

Abstract

Cette contribution propose un modèle théorique permettant d’identifier les tendances générales dans le mouvement des électeurs volatiles. Notre méthode permet à partir de données décentralisées de compléter les enquêtes d’opinions pour comprendre quelle part du résultat d’un parti provient d’électeurs fidèles conservés d’une élection à l’autre, et quelle part de l’électorat a été renouvelée. Elle peut également être utilisée à des fins prédictives :à partir d’un faible nombre de résultats provenant potentiellement de zones considérées comme peu représentatives, notre modèle permet d’extraire une tendance générale et de la reproduire sur l’ensemble d’un territoire donné. Nous proposons une typologie des résultats possibles des différents partis (gagnant, perdant, stable ou renouvelé). A titre d’illustration, nous appliquons ce modèle aux élections fédérales belges de 2010, en utilisant comme référence le résultat des élections régionales de 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Renaud Foucart & Marjorie Gassner & Emilie Van Haute, 2012. "Une typologie des résultats électoraux basée sur le comportement des électeurs volatiles en Belgique," CEVIPOL Working Papers 3, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbcvp:2013/128886
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