IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulb/ulbcvp/2013-128886.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Une typologie des résultats électoraux basée sur le comportement des électeurs volatiles en Belgique

Author

Listed:
  • Renaud Foucart
  • Marjorie Gassner
  • Emilie Van Haute

Abstract

Cette contribution propose un modèle théorique permettant d’identifier les tendances générales dans le mouvement des électeurs volatiles. Notre méthode permet à partir de données décentralisées de compléter les enquêtes d’opinions pour comprendre quelle part du résultat d’un parti provient d’électeurs fidèles conservés d’une élection à l’autre, et quelle part de l’électorat a été renouvelée. Elle peut également être utilisée à des fins prédictives :à partir d’un faible nombre de résultats provenant potentiellement de zones considérées comme peu représentatives, notre modèle permet d’extraire une tendance générale et de la reproduire sur l’ensemble d’un territoire donné. Nous proposons une typologie des résultats possibles des différents partis (gagnant, perdant, stable ou renouvelé). A titre d’illustration, nous appliquons ce modèle aux élections fédérales belges de 2010, en utilisant comme référence le résultat des élections régionales de 2009.

Suggested Citation

  • Renaud Foucart & Marjorie Gassner & Emilie Van Haute, 2012. "Une typologie des résultats électoraux basée sur le comportement des électeurs volatiles en Belgique," CEVIPOL Working Papers 3, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbcvp:2013/128886
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/128886/1/cahier-cevipol12.pdf
    File Function: cahier-cevipol12
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bellucci, Paolo, 2010. "Election cycles and electoral forecasting in Italy, 1994-2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 54-67, January.
    2. Campbell, James E. & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2008. "US presidential election forecasting: An introduction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 189-192.
    3. Ray C. Fair, 1996. "Econometrics and Presidential Elections," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 89-102, Summer.
    4. Dassonneville, Ruth & Hooghe, Marc, 2012. "Election forecasting under opaque conditions: A model for Francophone Belgium, 1981–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 777-788.
    5. Norpoth, Helmut & Gschwend, Thomas, 2010. "The chancellor model: Forecasting German elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 42-53, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ulb:ulbcvp:p0015 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Dassonneville, Ruth & Hooghe, Marc, 2012. "Election forecasting under opaque conditions: A model for Francophone Belgium, 1981–2010," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 777-788.
    3. Quinlan, Stephen & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2021. "Forecasting government support in Irish general elections: Opinion polls and structural models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1654-1665.
    4. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
    5. Aichholzer, Julian & Willmann, Johanna, 2014. "Forecasting Austrian national elections: The Grand Coalition model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 55-64.
    6. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 2003. "Is the political business cycle for real?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(5-6), pages 1091-1121, May.
    7. Hans Gersbach & Markus Müller, 2010. "Flexible pensions for politicians," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 103-124, October.
    8. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    9. Magalhães, Pedro C. & Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Lewis-Beck, Michael S., 2012. "Forecasting Spanish elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 769-776.
    10. Alexander Bauer & Andreas Bender & André Klima & Helmut Küchenhoff, 2020. "KOALA: a new paradigm for election coverage," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(1), pages 101-115, March.
    11. Fidrmuc, Jan, 2000. "Political support for reforms: Economics of voting in transition countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(8), pages 1491-1513, August.
    12. Ray C. Fair, 2009. "Presidential and Congressional Vote‐Share Equations," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 55-72, January.
    13. Filip Palda & Kristian Palda, 1998. "The impact of campaign expenditures on political competition in the French legislative elections of 1993," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 157-174, January.
    14. Erik Snowberg & Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2011. "How Prediction Markets can Save Event Studies," CAMA Working Papers 2011-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Eugenio Diaz Bonilla & Hector E. Schamis, 1999. "La economía política de las políticas de cambio en Argentina," Research Department Publications 3079, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    17. Irem Batool & Gernot Sieg, 2009. "Bread and the attrition of power: Economic events and German election results," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 151-165, October.
    18. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Gottschalk, Katrin & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2008. "Stock market volatility around national elections," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1941-1953, September.
    19. Benny Geys & Jan Vermeir, 2014. "Party Cues In Elections Under Multilevel Governance: Theory And Evidence From Us States," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), pages 1029-1058, August.
    20. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
    21. Sidman, Andrew H. & Mak, Maxwell & Lebo, Matthew J., 2008. "Forecasting non-incumbent presidential elections: Lessons learned from the 2000 election," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 237-258.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbcvp:2013/128886. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Benoit Pauwels (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.