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The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections

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  • LEBO, MATTHEW J.
  • NORPOTH, HELMUT

Abstract

We apply a dynamic perspective to forecasting votes and seats in British elections. Our vote model captures the swing of the electoral pendulum between the two major parties while using prime ministerial approval as the (sole) short-run predictor of vote choice. The seat model incorporates the inertia of the previous seat distribution while translating votes into seats. The models forecast the lead of one major party over the other (percentage for votes and number for seats). The statistical estimation includes data on British elections since 1945, although the test for cycles (swing of the electoral pendulum) goes as far back as 1832. The vote model picks the winner of every one of the 1945–2005 elections (out-of-sample forecasts) and is rarely off by more than 2 percentage points. The seat model does almost as well, rarely missing the seat lead by more than 25.

Suggested Citation

  • Lebo, Matthew J. & Norpoth, Helmut, 2007. "The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 71-87, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:bjposi:v:37:y:2007:i:01:p:71-87_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Pedro C. Magalhães & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "On Waves in War and Elections Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series," NIPE Working Papers 1/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Ronald McDonald & Xuxin Mao, 2015. "Forecasting the 2015 General Election with Internet Big Data: An Application of the TRUST Framework," Working Papers 2016_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Toros, Emre, 2012. "Forecasting Turkish local elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 813-821.
    4. Toros, Emre, 2011. "Forecasting elections in Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1248-1258, October.
    5. Nadeau, Richard & Lewis-Beck, Michael S. & Bélanger, Éric, 2010. "Electoral forecasting in France: A multi-equation solution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 11-18, January.
    6. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Pedro C. Magalhães, 2008. "Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections," NIPE Working Papers 20/2008, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    7. Jerôme, Bruno & Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique, 2010. "Forecasting partisan dynamics in Europe," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 98-115, January.

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