Growth, Centrism and Semi-Presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese General Elections
Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its "fundamentals". In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of "economics" and "politics", we capture "economics" through a nonlinear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre-left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.
|Date of creation:||2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal|
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2004.
"Popularity functions, partisan effects, and support in Parliament,"
Economics and Politics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 101-115, 03.
- Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2000. "Popularity functions, partisan effects and support in Parliament," NIPE Working Papers 8/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Oleh Protsyk, 2006. "Intra-Executive Competition between President and Prime Minister: Patterns of Institutional Conflict and Cooperation under Semi-Presidentialism," Political Studies, Political Studies Association, vol. 54, pages 219-244, 06.
- Lebo, Matthew J. & Norpoth, Helmut, 2007. "The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 71-87, January.
- Whiteley, Paul, 1979. "Electoral Forecasting from Poll Data: The British Case," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 219-236, April.
- Amorim Neto, Octavio & Str M, Kaare, 2006. "Breaking the Parliamentary Chain of Delegation: Presidents and Non-partisan Cabinet Members in European Democracies," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 619-643, October.
- Francisco JosÈ Veiga & Linda GonÁalves Veiga, 2004. "The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 118(3_4), pages 341-364, 03.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:20/2008. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.