On Waves in War and Elections Wavelet Analysis of Political Time-Series
Spectral analysis and ARMA models have been the most established weapons of choice for the detection of cycles in time series data. However, such techniques are only appropriate when periodic components are time invariant. This has led some scholars to disregard the possibility of irregular cycles. We aim to contribute to further reconsideration of the possibility of cycles in political phenomena by introducing wavelet analysis. Its main contribution comes from the ability to estimate the spectral characteristics of a time series as a function of time, thus revealing how its different periodic components change over time, while preserving rigorous standards of statistical inference. We demonstrate the usefulness of wavelet analysis with two applications. The first concerns the possibility of long-cycles in wars, one of the central puzzles in the international relations sub-field. The second concerns election returns in presidential and congressional elections in the United States, where the existence of cyclical patterns has been equally controversial. Contrary to the prevailing wisdom, wavelet analysis allows the detection of transient and coexisting cycles, shedding some light over phenomena that have remained unaddressed so far.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Núcleo de Investigação em Políticas Económicas, Escola de Economia e Gestão, Universidade do Minho, P-4710-057 Braga, Portugal|
Phone: +351-253604510 ext 5532
Web page: http://www3.eeg.uminho.pt/economia/nipe/versao_inglesa/index_uk.htm
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James A, 2003.
"The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3712, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2005. "The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 546-579, June.
- Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2002. "The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 9378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon H. & Robinson, James A., 2003. "The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutioanl Change and Economic Growth," Working papers 4269-02, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Enders, Walter & Sandler, Todd, 2000. "Is Transnational Terrorism Becoming More Threatening? A Time-Series Investigation," Staff General Research Papers Archive 1823, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Gencay, Ramazan & Selcuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon, 2005. "Multiscale systematic risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 55-70, February.
- Rosecrance, Richard, 1987. "Long cycle theory and international relations," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(02), pages 283-301, March.
- Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares & Nuno Azevedo, 2007. "Using Wavelets to decompose time-frequency economic relations," NIPE Working Papers 17/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
- Beck, Paul Allen, 1979. "The Electoral Cycle and Patterns of American Politics," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 129-156, April.
- Patrick M. Crowley & David G. Mayes, 2009. "How fused is the euro area core?: An evaluation of growth cycle co-movement and synchronization using wavelet analysis," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(1), pages 63-95.
- Lebo, Matthew J. & Norpoth, Helmut, 2007. "The PM and the Pendulum: Dynamic Forecasting of British Elections," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(01), pages 71-87, January.
- Michael Gerace, 2002. "US Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Some Evidence from Spectral Methods," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11.
- Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, 04.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:1/2010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria João Thompson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.