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Economic Outcomes and Voting Behaviour in a Multi-party System: An Application to the Netherlands


  • Swank, O H
  • Eisinga, R


This paper is an empirical study to the effects of economic outcomes on party choice for the Netherlands. In the first part of the paper we employ a multinomial logit model to examine the links between voters' characteristics and party choice. The results suggest that there are long-run movements in party choice which are unlikely be the result of changing economic outcomes. In the second part, we use time series analysis to determine the effects of economic conditions on short-run and medium-run movements in votes shares. The estimations results provide support for the responsibility hypothesis and for the predictions of the partisan voter model that left-wing (right-wing) parties benefit (suffer) from favourable economic growth prospects. Copyright 1999 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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  • Swank, O H & Eisinga, R, 1999. "Economic Outcomes and Voting Behaviour in a Multi-party System: An Application to the Netherlands," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 101(3-4), pages 195-213, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:101:y:1999:i:3-4:p:195-213

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Grier, Kevin B & McGarrity, Joseph P, 1998. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Fluctuations on the Electoral Fortunes of House Incumbents," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 143-161, April.
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:94:y:2000:i:03:p:665-676_22 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Levitt, Steven D, 1996. "How Do Senators Vote? Disentangling the Role of Voter Preferences, Party Affiliation, and Senate Ideology," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 425-441, June.
    4. Mueller,Dennis C., 2003. "Public Choice III," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521894753, May.
    5. Edward López & Carlos Ramírez, 2004. "Party Polarization and the Business Cycle in the United States," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 121(3), pages 413-430, February.
    6. repec:cup:apsrev:v:80:y:1986:i:01:p:89-106_18 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Peltzman, Sam, 1985. "An Economic Interpretation of the History of Congressional Voting in the Twentieth Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 656-675, September.
    8. Arsene Aka & W. Robert Reed & D. Eric Schansberg & Zhen Zhu, 1996. "Is There A "Culture Of Spending" In Congress?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 191-211, November.
    9. Herron, Michael C., 2000. "Cutpoint-Adjusted Interest Group Ratings," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 346-366, July.
    10. W. Reed & D. Schansberg & James Wilbanks & Zhen Zhu, 1998. "The relationship between congressional spending and tenure with an application to term limits," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 94(1), pages 85-104, January.
    11. Baltagi, Badi H. & Wu, Ping X., 1999. "Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regressions With Ar(1) Disturbances," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(06), pages 814-823, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2014. "Voting Islamist or voting secular? An empirical analysis of voting outcomes in Egypt’s “Arab Spring”," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 160(1), pages 109-130, July.
    2. Jones, Philip & Dawson, Peter, 2007. "`Choice' in collective decision-making processes: Instrumental or expressive approval?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 102-117, February.
    3. May Elsayyad & Shima’a Hanafy, 2013. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in "Arab Spring" Egypt," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2013-01, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
    4. Chang Wen-Chun, 2008. "Toward Independence or Unification?," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-32, January.
    5. May Elsayyad & Shima'a Hanafy, 2012. "Voting Islamist or Voting secular? An empirical analysis of Voting Outcomes in “Arab Spring” Egypt," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201251, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    6. Paap, Richard & van Nierop, Erjen & van Heerde, Harald J. & Wedel, Michel & Franses, Philip Hans & Alsem, Karel Jan, 2005. "Consideration sets, intentions and the inclusion of "don't know" in a two-stage model for voter choice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 53-71.
    7. Chortareas, Georgios & Logothetis, Vasileios & Papandreou, Andreas A., 2016. "Political budget cycles and reelection prospects in Greece's municipalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 1-13.

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