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Var det fortsat ”the economy, stupid!” i 2016 og 2018?
[Was it still "the economy, stupid!" in 2016 and 2018?]

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  • Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter

Abstract

US elections are often interpreted in an anecdotal and person focused manner by media and commentators, while social science research consistently has found that economic conditions play a very large role, while others play a small one. An analysis US presidential and midterm elections 1948-2018 demonstrate that the presidential election of 2016 and the midterm elections of 2018 generally fits well into a logic that voters hold the presidential party responsible for the economic development, while there also is a cost of ruling.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2019. "Var det fortsat ”the economy, stupid!” i 2016 og 2018? [Was it still "the economy, stupid!" in 2016 and 2018?]," MPRA Paper 97297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97297
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 159-173, May.
    2. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2019. "Hvad nu, hvis flertallet ikke ønsker vinderen af et demokratisk valg? [What if the majority does not want the winner of a democratic election?]," MPRA Paper 97296, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2018. "Trump, Condorcet and Borda: Voting paradoxes in the 2016 Republican presidential primaries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 29-35.
    4. Kramer, Gerald H., 1971. "Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 131-143, March.
    5. Atkeson, Lonna Rae & Partin, Randall W., 1995. "Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparison of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(1), pages 99-107, March.
    6. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    7. Kuklinski, James H. & West, Darrell M., 1981. "Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 436-447, June.
    8. Douglas Hibbs, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 149-180, July.
    9. Tufte, Edward R., 1975. "Determinants of the Outcomes of Midterm Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 812-826, September.
    10. Kurrild-Klitgaard, Peter, 2012. "Too close to call: Growth and the cost of ruling in US presidential elections, with an application to the 2012 election," MPRA Paper 42464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kramer, Gerald H., 1971. "Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 131-143, March.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    US elections; economic voting; Donald Trump; US presidential election 2016; US midterm election 2018;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • O51 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada

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