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The impact of stock incremental information on the volatility of the Athens stock exchange

  • Panayiotis Diamandis
  • Anastassios Drakos
  • Argyrios Volis

In this paper we model the volatility of the Athens Stock Exchange general index. With the use of alternative conditional heteroskedasticity models (Glonsten et al., 1993; Bollerslev, 1986; Zakoian, 1991) we investigate whether stock returns include incremental information when we model index volatility. Whereas empirically much is known about the volatility of the Athens General Index, very little has been done on the impact the stock increments have on the General Index volatility. Our econometric approach relies on the comparison between TARCH and modified GARCH estimation techniques, on a sample of 48 shares included in the Athens General Index, using daily data over the period 1993-2003. After capturing for any possible qualitative effects, such as the cut-off points indicating a “bearish” or “bullish” capital market, the results clearly indicate that the shares include incremental volatility information in their returns.1

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (2007)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 413-424

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:5:p:413-424
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  1. Alexakis, Panayotis & Petrakis, Panayotis, 1991. "Analysing stock market behaviour in a small capital market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 471-483, June.
  2. Stilianos Fountas & Konstantinos N. Segredakis, 1999. "Emerging Stock Markets Return Seasonalities: the January Effect and the Tax-Loss Selling Hypothesis," Working Papers 37, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1999.
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  4. Lawrence R. Glosten & Ravi Jagannathan & David E. Runkle, 1993. "On the relation between the expected value and the volatility of the nominal excess return on stocks," Staff Report 157, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. George Leledakis & Ian Davidson & George Karathanassis, 2003. "Cross-sectional estimation of stock returns in small markets: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 413-426.
  6. Roubini, Nouriel & Alesina, Alberto, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Scholarly Articles 4553025, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Klein, Michael W, 1996. "Timing Is All: Elections and the Duration of United States Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 84-101, February.
  8. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  9. Nicholas Apergis & Sophia Eleptheriou, 2001. "Stock returns and volatility: Evidence from the Athens Stock market index," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(1), pages 50-61, March.
  10. Fielitz, Bruce D., 1971. "Stationarity of Random Data: Some Implications for the Distribution of Stock Price Changes," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(03), pages 1025-1034, June.
  11. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
  12. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  13. Gregorios Siourounis, 2002. "Modelling volatility and testing for efficiency in emerging capital markets: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 47-55.
  14. Manolis Kavussanos & Everton Dockery, 2001. "A multivariate test for stock market efficiency: the case of ASE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 573-579.
  15. Blair, Bevan J. & Poon, Ser-Huang & Taylor, Stephen J., 2001. "Modelling S&P 100 volatility: The information content of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1665-1679, September.
  16. E. Dockery & M. G. Kavussanos, 1996. "Testing the efficient market hypothesis using panel data, with application to the Athens stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 121-123.
  17. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini, 1992. "Political Cycles in OECD Economies," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 59(4), pages 663-688.
  18. Black, Stanley W, 1976. "Rational Response to Shocks in a Dynamic Model of Capital Asset Pricing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(5), pages 767-79, December.
  19. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1967. "The Variation of Some Other Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40, pages 393.
  20. Bera, Anil K & Higgins, Matthew L, 1993. " ARCH Models: Properties, Estimation and Testing," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 305-66, December.
  21. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  22. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  23. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Modeling Heteroscedasticity in Daily Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(3), pages 307-17, July.
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