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Modelling volatility during the current financial crisis: an empirical analysis of the US and the UK stock markets

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  • Ioannis A. Tampakoudis
  • Demetres N. Subeniotis
  • Ioannis G. Kroustalis

Abstract

The overarching aim of the present paper is to investigate the pattern of returns and volatility in the US and the UK stock markets prior and subsequent to the current financial crisis. For that reason, the family of GARCH models is utilised; specifically, GARCH, GARCH in Mean, threshold GARCH and exponential GARCH specifications are applied on daily data from July 2004 to April 2009. The advanced fitness of TGARCH specifications after the crisis outbreak indicates significant asymmetric behaviour and increased nervousness and uncertainty in both markets. Indeed, the financial crisis forms a risky environment where the effects of shocks are more persistent. However, contradictive empirical findings arise for the required risk premium between the examined capital markets, although it would be expected that higher risk is compensated with additional returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis A. Tampakoudis & Demetres N. Subeniotis & Ioannis G. Kroustalis, 2012. "Modelling volatility during the current financial crisis: an empirical analysis of the US and the UK stock markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3/4), pages 171-194.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijtrgm:v:5:y:2012:i:3/4:p:171-194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Marion Kohler & Christian Upper, 2009. "Financial crises and economic activity," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 89-135.
    4. Georgios E. Chortareas & John B. McDermott & Titos E. Ritsatos, 2000. "Stock Market Volatility in an Emerging Market: Further Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7‐8), pages 983-1002, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek & Scott W. Hegerty, 2016. "GARCH-based versus traditional measures of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from Korean industry trade," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 103-136.

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