IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Modelling volatility during the current financial crisis: an empirical analysis of the US and the UK stock markets

Listed author(s):
  • Ioannis A. Tampakoudis
  • Demetres N. Subeniotis
  • Ioannis G. Kroustalis
Registered author(s):

    The overarching aim of the present paper is to investigate the pattern of returns and volatility in the US and the UK stock markets prior and subsequent to the current financial crisis. For that reason, the family of GARCH models is utilised; specifically, GARCH, GARCH in Mean, threshold GARCH and exponential GARCH specifications are applied on daily data from July 2004 to April 2009. The advanced fitness of TGARCH specifications after the crisis outbreak indicates significant asymmetric behaviour and increased nervousness and uncertainty in both markets. Indeed, the financial crisis forms a risky environment where the effects of shocks are more persistent. However, contradictive empirical findings arise for the required risk premium between the examined capital markets, although it would be expected that higher risk is compensated with additional returns.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=49984
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Int. J. of Trade and Global Markets.

    Volume (Year): 5 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3/4 ()
    Pages: 171-194

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:ids:ijtrgm:v:5:y:2012:i:3/4:p:171-194
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID=130

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Lau, Amy Hing-Ling & Lau, Hon-Shiang & Wingender, John R, 1990. "The Distribution of Stock Returns: New Evidence against the Stable Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 217-223, April.
    2. Maria Kasch-Haroutounian & Simon Price, 2001. "Volatility in the transition markets of Central Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 93-105.
    3. FrancisX. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    4. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-1151, December.
    5. Richard Harris & C. Coskun Kucukozmen & Fatih Yilmaz, 2004. "Skewness in the conditional distribution of daily equity returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 195-202.
    6. Dima Alberg & Haim Shalit & Rami Yosef, 2008. "Estimating stock market volatility using asymmetric GARCH models," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1201-1208.
    7. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    8. Kim, Dongcheol & Kon, Stanley J, 1994. "Alternative Models for the Conditional Heteroscedasticity of Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(4), pages 563-598, October.
    9. De Santis, Giorgio & imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in emerging financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 561-579, August.
    10. Li, Qi & Yang, Jian & Hsiao, Cheng & Chang, Young-Jae, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 650-665, December.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Georgios E. Chortareas & John B. McDermott & Titos E. Ritsatos, 2000. "Stock Market Volatility in an Emerging Market: Further Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(7&8), pages 983-1002.
    13. John T. Scruggs, 1998. "Resolving the Puzzling Intertemporal Relation between the Market Risk Premium and Conditional Market Variance: A Two-Factor Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 575-603, April.
    14. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    15. Gregorios Siourounis, 2002. "Modelling volatility and testing for efficiency in emerging capital markets: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 47-55.
    16. José Dias Curto & João Tomaz & José Castro Pinto, 2009. "A new approach to bad news effects on volatility: the multiple-sign-volume sensitive regime EGARCH model (MSV-EGARCH)," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 8(1), pages 23-36, April.
    17. Francesco Guidi, 2009. "Volatility and Long-Term Relations in Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Switzerland, and the UK," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-39, June.
    18. Chan, Kalok & Chan, K C & Karolyi, G Andrew, 1991. "Intraday Volatility in the Stock Index and Stock Index Futures Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 657-684.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    20. Akgiray, Vedat, 1989. "Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Time Series of Stock Returns: Evidence and Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(1), pages 55-80, January.
    21. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
    22. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 3-21.
    23. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
    24. Haiyan Song & Xiaming Liu & Peter Romilly, 1998. "Stock Returns and Volatility: an empirical study of Chinese stock markets," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 129-139.
    25. David Chappel & Joanne Padmore & Julia Pidgeon, 1998. "A note on ERM membership and the efficiency of the London Stock Exchange," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 19-23.
    26. Choudhry, Taufiq, 1996. "Stock market volatility and the crash of 1987: evidence from six emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 969-981, December.
    27. Koutmos, Gregory, 1998. "Asymmetries in the Conditional Mean and the Conditional Variance: Evidence From Nine Stock Markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 277-290, May.
    28. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    29. Lakshman Alles & Louis Murray, 2001. "An examination of return and volatility patterns on the Irish equity market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 137-146.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijtrgm:v:5:y:2012:i:3/4:p:171-194. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Darren Simpson)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.