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Modelling volatility and testing for efficiency in emerging capital markets: the case of the Athens stock exchange

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  • Gregorios Siourounis

Abstract

This study employs GARCH type models and tests for their validity over an Emerging Capital Market, the Athens Stock Exchange Market (ASE). Correct specification, of the different models, implies that the Weak Efficient Market Hypothesis does not hold for ASE. There is strong empirical evidence that ASE follows a pattern where last period's daily returns are correlated with today's returns and current volatility is positively related to past realizations. Negative shocks have an asymmetric impact on the daily stock returns series and political instabilities increase volatility over time. The mean of the series does not change during high volatile periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregorios Siourounis, 2002. "Modelling volatility and testing for efficiency in emerging capital markets: the case of the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 47-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:12:y:2002:i:1:p:47-55
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100110088003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Michail S. Koubouros, 2011. "The Role of Realised Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 87-124, March - J.
    2. Baldi, Lucia & Vandone, Daniela & Peri, Massimo, 2010. "Is Wine a Financial Parachute?," 2010 International European Forum, February 8-12, 2010, Innsbruck-Igls, Austria 100506, International European Forum on System Dynamics and Innovation in Food Networks.
    3. Karampinis, Nikolaos I. & Hevas, Dimosthenis L., 2011. "Mandating IFRS in an Unfavorable Environment: The Greek Experience," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 304-332, September.
    4. Athanassiou, Emmanuel & Kollias, Christos & Syriopoulos, Theodore, 2006. "Dynamic volatility and external security related shocks: The case of the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 411-424, December.
    5. Laopodis, Nikiforos T., 2004. "Financial market liberalization and stock market efficiency: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 103-123, August.
    6. Anastassios A. Drakos & Georgios P. Kouretas & Leonidas P. Zarangas, 2010. "Forecasting financial volatility of the Athens stock exchange daily returns: an application of the asymmetric normal mixture GARCH model," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 331-350.
    7. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 3-21.
    8. repec:mfj:journl:v:16:y:2011:i:1-2:p:87-124 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Panayiotis Diamandis & Anastassios Drakos & Argyrios Volis, 2007. "The impact of stock incremental information on the volatility of the Athens stock exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 413-424.
    10. Nikolaos Sariannidis & Polyxeni Papadopoulou & Evangelos Drimbetas, 2015. "Investigation of the Greek Stock Exchange volatility and the impact of foreign markets from 2007 to 2012," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology (EMATTECH), Kavala, Greece, vol. 8(2), pages 55-68, October.
    11. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Babalos, Vassilios & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2016. "Financial crisis, liquidity and dynamic linkages between large and small stocks: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 46-62.
    12. repec:ksp:journ2:v:4:y:2017:i:2:p:239-249 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Ioannis A. Tampakoudis & Demetres N. Subeniotis & Ioannis G. Kroustalis, 2012. "Modelling volatility during the current financial crisis: an empirical analysis of the US and the UK stock markets," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(3/4), pages 171-194.
    14. Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Market capitalization and efficiency. Does it matter? Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 707-713.
    15. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Gogas, Periklis & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2009. "Does financial market liberalization increase the degree of market efficiency? The case of the Athens stock exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(1-2), pages 50-57, March.
    16. David Chappell & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2005. "Using the correlation dimension to detect non-linear dynamics: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," Econometrics 0504005, EconWPA.

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