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Predictability and Model Selection in the Context of ARCH Models

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  • Degiannakis, Stavros
  • Xekalaki, Evdokia

Abstract

Most of the methods used in the ARCH literature for selecting the appropriate model are based on evaluating the ability of the models to describe the data. An alternative model selection approach is examined based on the evaluation of the predictability of the models in terms of standardized prediction errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2005. "Predictability and Model Selection in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 80486, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:80486
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Xekalaki, Evdokia & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2005. "Evaluating volatility forecasts in option pricing in the context of a simulated options market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 611-629, April.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2007. "Simulated evidence on the distribution of the standardized one-step-ahead prediction errors in ARCH processes," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 31-37.
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & Alexandra Livada, 2016. "Evaluation of realized volatility predictions from models with leptokurtically and asymmetrically distributed forecast errors," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(5), pages 871-892, April.
    5. Degiannakis, Stavros, 2017. "The one-trading-day-ahead forecast errors of intra-day realized volatility," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1298-1314.
    6. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2008. "SPEC model selection algorithm for ARCH models: an options pricing evaluation framework," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 419-423.
    7. Degiannakis, Stavros, 2018. "Multiple days ahead realized volatility forecasting: Single, combined and average forecasts," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-61.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH models; Model selection; Predictability; Correlated Gamma Ratio distribution; Standardized Prediction Error Criterion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C46 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Specific Distributions
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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