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SPEC Model Selection Algorithm for ARCH Models: an Options Pricing Evaluation Framework

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  • Degiannakis, Stavros
  • Xekalaki, Evdokia

Abstract

A number of single ARCH model-based methods of predicting volatility are compared to Degiannakis and Xekalaki’s (2005) poly-model SPEC algorithm method in terms of profits from trading actual options of the S&P500 index returns. The results show that traders using the standardized prediction error criterion (SPEC) for deciding which model’s forecasts to use at any given point in time achieve the highest profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2008. "SPEC Model Selection Algorithm for ARCH Models: an Options Pricing Evaluation Framework," MPRA Paper 96321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:96321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xekalaki, Evdokia & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2005. "Evaluating volatility forecasts in option pricing in the context of a simulated options market," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 611-629, April.
    2. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2005. "Predictability and model selection in the context of ARCH models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 55-82, January.
    3. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2007. "Assessing the Performance of a Prediction Error Criterion Model Selection Algorithm in the Context of ARCH Models," MPRA Paper 96324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Heston, Steven L & Nandi, Saikat, 2000. "A Closed-Form GARCH Option Valuation Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(3), pages 585-625.
    5. Jin‐Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH models; Model selection; SPEC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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