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Does a Change of Government Influence Compliance with International Agreements? Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two Percent Target

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  • Blum, Johannes
  • Potrafke, Niklas

Abstract

We examine whether changes of government influence compliance with international agreements. We investigate compliance with the NATO two percent target to which all NATO countries committed themselves during the NATO summit in Wales in 2014. The dataset includes the military expenditure by NATO countries over the period 2010–2018. The results suggest that countries that do not (yet) comply with the two percent target have smaller growth rates in military expenditure relative to GDP when they experienced a large change of government, e.g. a change from a rightwing to a leftwing government, than countries that did not experience such a large change of government since the NATO summit in 2014. Countries that experienced a large change of government are, thus, less likely to comply with the two percent target. Future research should examine the credibility problem of national governments in other international agreements too.

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  • Blum, Johannes & Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Does a Change of Government Influence Compliance with International Agreements? Empirical Evidence for the NATO Two Percent Target," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue Latest Ar, pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:espost:224915
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2019.1575141
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    Cited by:

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    2. Schuknecht, Ludger & Siegerink, Vincent, 2020. "The political economy of the G20 agenda on financial regulation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Johannes Blum, 2021. "Democracy’s third wave and national defense spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 183-212, October.
    4. Blum, Johannes, 2019. "Arms production, national defense spending and arms trade: Examining supply and demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    5. Becker Jordan & Kuokštytė Ringailė & Kuokštis Vytautas, 2023. "The Political Economy of Transatlantic Security – A Policy Perspective," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 55-77, June.
    6. Langlotz, Sarah & Potrafke, Niklas, 2019. "Does development aid increase military expenditure?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 735-757.
    7. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    8. Johannes Blum & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Internationale Abkommen und Regierungswechsel: Evidenz zum NATO-Zwei-Prozent-Ziel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 18-21, February.
    9. Florian Dorn & Niklas Potrafke & Marcel Schlepper, 2023. "NATO Defense Spending in 2023: Implications One Year After Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine," EconPol Policy Brief 50, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Johannes Blum, 2019. "Angebot und Nachfrage auf dem Rüstungsmarkt – Evidenz auf Basis von Unternehmensdaten aus der Rüstungsindustrie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(18), pages 34-37, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International agreements; compliance; credibility; time inconsistency; change of government; military expenditure; two percent target; NATO; burden sharing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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