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How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts

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  • Martin Mosler
  • Niklas Potrafke
  • Markus Reischmann

Abstract

We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts’ recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert’s personal and country-level attributes. Country-level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert’s educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programs of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke & Markus Reischmann, 2019. "How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts," CESifo Working Paper Series 7777, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7777
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Blesse & Annika Havlik & Friedrich Heinemann, 2021. "Euro area reform preferences of Central and Eastern European economic experts," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 155-179, February.
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    3. Marios-Georgios PSYCHALIS, 2020. "Euro Plus Pact: The Greek Case," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(10), pages 102-124, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Greece; Grexit; experts’ survey; public debt crisis; IMF; international organizations; policy advice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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