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Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election

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  • Roland Füss
  • Michael Bechtel

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Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Roland Füss & Michael Bechtel, 2008. "Partisan politics and stock market performance: The effect of expected government partisanship on stock returns in the 2002 German federal election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 131-150, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:135:y:2008:i:3:p:131-150 DOI: 10.1007/s11127-007-9250-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Liesenfeld, Roman, 1998. "Dynamic Bivariate Mixture Models: Modeling the Behavior of Prices and Trading Volume," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(1), pages 101-109, January.
    2. repec:cup:apsrev:v:100:y:2006:i:02:p:165-181_06 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gartner, Manfred & Wellershoff, Klaus W., 1995. "Is there an election cycle in American stock returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 387-410.
    4. Ederington, Louis H & Lee, Jae Ha, 1993. " How Markets Process Information: News Releases and Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1161-1191, September.
    5. Pedro Santa-Clara & Rossen Valkanov, 2003. "The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 1841-1872, October.
    6. Riley, William B. & Luksetich, William A., 1980. "The Market Prefers Republicans: Myth or Reality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(03), pages 541-560, September.
    7. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    8. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    9. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    10. Karpoff, Jonathan M, 1986. " A Theory of Trading Volume," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1069-1087, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr, 2016. "Is there a link between politics and stock returns? A literature survey," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 15-23.
    2. Marina Riem, 2016. "Does political uncertainty influence firm owners‘ business perceptions?," ifo Working Paper Series 226, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    3. Osterloh, Steffen, 2012. "Words speak louder than actions: The impact of politics on economic performance," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 318-336.
    4. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:546-563 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Is German domestic social policy politically controversial?," Public Choice, Springer, pages 393-418.
    6. Christoph Schinke, 2014. "Government Ideology, Globalization, and Top Income Shares in OECD Countries," ifo Working Paper Series 181, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    7. Lskavyan, Vahe, 2014. "Donor–recipient ideological differences and economic aid," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 345-347.
    8. Foremny, Dirk & Riedel, Nadine, 2014. "Business taxes and the electoral cycle," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, pages 48-61.
    9. Niklas Potrafke, 2012. "Political cycles and economic performance in OECD countries: empirical evidence from 1951–2006," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 150(1), pages 155-179, January.
    10. Jorge Hargrave Gonçalves Da Silva, 2014. "Partisan Politics And Country Risk: Evidence From The 2002 Brazilian Presidential Election," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 041, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2008. "Political parties and the economy: Macro convergence, micro partisanship?," Working Papers 2008/1, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    12. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," ifo Working Paper Series 221, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Boutchkov, Maria & Doshi, Hitesh & Durnev, Art & Molchanov, Alexander, 2008. "Politics and Volatility," CEI Working Paper Series 2008-10, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    14. K. Arin & Alexander Molchanov & Otto Reich, 2013. "Politics, stock markets, and model uncertainty," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 23-38, August.
    15. Imai, Masami & Shelton, Cameron A., 2011. "Elections and political risk: New evidence from the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 837-849, August.
    16. Gabriel Rodríguez & Alfredo Vargas, 2012. "Impacto de expectativas políticas en los retornos del Índice General de la Bolsa de Valores de Lima," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 35(70), pages 190-223.
    17. Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Demir, Ender & Bilgin, Mehmet Huseyin, 2013. "Experience-based corporate corruption and stock market volatility: Evidence from emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 1-13.
    18. Benton Allyson Lucinda, 2013. "Partisan policy promises and sector-specific stock-market performance: evidence from Mexico’s 2006 presidential campaign," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 187-215, August.
    19. Masami Imai & Cameron A. Shelton, 2010. "Elections and Political Risk: New Evidence from Political Prediction Markets in Taiwan," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2010-001, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    20. Pau Castells & Francesc Trillas, 2013. "The effects of surprise political events on quoted firms: the March 2004 election in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 83-112, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government partisanship; Stock market performance; Elections; GARCH modeling; Political information; Price formation; C12; G12; G38;

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G38 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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