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Assessing ECB?s Credibility During the First Years of the Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation

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  • Gianni Amisano
  • Marco Tronzano

Abstract

This paper extends Svensson (1994) ?simplest test?of in?ation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework. We apply this approach to the initial years of the Eurosystem and obtain various estimates of ECB?s monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence is robust to alternative prior assumptions, and suggests that the strategy followed by the ECB was successful in building a satisfactory degree of reputation. However, we find some significant credibility reversals concerning both anti-inflationary and anti-deflationary credibility. These reversals, in turn, are closely related to the evolution of the cyclical macroeconomic conditions in the Euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Gianni Amisano & Marco Tronzano, 2005. "Assessing ECB?s Credibility During the First Years of the Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation," Working Papers ubs0512, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ubs:wpaper:ubs0512
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Tronzano , Marco, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Credibility: A Note on the Recent Empirical Literature," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 58(4), pages 489-506.
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    Cited by:

    1. Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2007. "Assessing the Credibility of The Convertibility Zone of The Hong Kong Dollar," Working Papers 0719, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.

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