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Assessing European Central Bank'S Credibility During The First Years Of The Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation

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  • GIANNI AMISANO
  • MARCO TRONZANO

Abstract

In this paper we extend Svenssons (CEPR Discussion Paper 940, April 1994) ‘simplest test’ of inflation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework and obtain various estimates of the European Central Bank's monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests that the strategy followed by the European Central Bank was successful in building a satisfactory degree of reputation. However, we find some significant credibility reversals concerning both anti‐inflationary and anti‐deflationary credibility. These reversals, in turn, are closely related to the evolution of the cyclical macroeconomic conditions in the euro area.

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  • Gianni Amisano & Marco Tronzano, 2010. "Assessing European Central Bank'S Credibility During The First Years Of The Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(5), pages 437-459, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:5:p:437-459
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2010.02203.x
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    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-136, December.
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    4. Tronzano , Marco, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Credibility: A Note on the Recent Empirical Literature," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 58(4), pages 489-506.
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    2. Cem Cakmakli & Selva Demiralp, 2020. "A Dynamic Evaluation of Central Bank Credibility," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2015, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Bicchal, Motilal, 2022. "Central bank credibility and its effect on stabilization," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 73-94.
    4. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte & Sébastien Ringuedé, 2018. "Central bank credibility and the expectations channel: evidence based on a new credibility index," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 493-535, August.
    5. Iris Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal & Woon Wong & Peter Howells, 2011. "Measuring the Policymaker’s Credibility: The Bank of England in ‘nice’ and ‘not-so-nice’ times," Working Papers 20111110, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    6. de Freitas Val, Flávio & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo & Gaglianone, Wagner Piazza, 2017. "Estimating the credibility of Brazilian monetary policy using a Kalman filter approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 37-53.

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