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Assessing European Central Bank'S Credibility During The First Years Of The Eurosystem: A Bayesian Empirical Investigation

  • GIANNI AMISANO
  • MARCO TRONZANO

In this paper we extend Svenssons (CEPR Discussion Paper 940, April 1994) 'simplest test' of inflation target credibility inside a Bayesian econometric framework and obtain various estimates of the European Central Bank's monetary policy credibility. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests that the strategy followed by the European Central Bank was successful in building a satisfactory degree of reputation. However, we find some significant credibility reversals concerning both anti-inflationary and anti-deflationary credibility. These reversals, in turn, are closely related to the evolution of the cyclical macroeconomic conditions in the euro area. Copyright � 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation � 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 78 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (09)
Pages: 437-459

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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:5:p:437-459
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