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Isolating A Measure Of Inflation Expectations For The South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates

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  • Monique Reid

Abstract

The inflation expectations channel of the transmission mechanism is generally recognised as crucial for the implementation of modern monetary policy. This paper briefly reviews the practices commonly employed for measuring inflation expectations in South Africa, and offers an additional method, which is market based. The methodologies of Nelson and Siegel and Svensson are applied to determine implied nominal and real forward interest rates. The difference between the nominal and real forward rates (called inflation compensation) on a particular day is then used as a proxy for the market's inflation expectations. This measure should not be viewed as a substitute for other measures of inflation expectations, but should rather supplement these in order to offer an additional insight.

Suggested Citation

  • Monique Reid, 2009. "Isolating A Measure Of Inflation Expectations For The South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 399-413, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:77:y:2009:i:3:p:399-413
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2009.01218.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Stan A. Du Plessis, 2005. "Proposals For Strengthening The Sarb'S Inflation Targeting Regime," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 73(2), pages 337-354, June.
    3. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
    4. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    5. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    6. Pu Shen, 1995. "Benefits and limitations of inflation indexed Treasury bonds," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 80(Q III), pages 41-56.
    7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Mark Fisher & Douglas Nychka & David Zervos, 1995. "Fitting the term structure of interest rates with smoothing splines," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Gj Kershoff & Bw Smit, 2002. "Conducting Inflation Expectation Surveys in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 70(3), pages 205-212, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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