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A market-based assessment of the outlook for inflation: Expectations and monetary policy in South Africa

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Listed:
  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Daan Steenkamp

Abstract

Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific liquidity risk premia, this paper provides estimates of bond investors' inflation expectations and associated inflation risk premia in South African sovereign bonds. The results suggest that investors' long-term inflation expectations have gradually been declining towards the tolerance band adopted by the South African Reserve Bank in 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2026. "A market-based assessment of the outlook for inflation: Expectations and monetary policy in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2026-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2026-21
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Monique Reid, 2009. "Isolating A Measure Of Inflation Expectations For The South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 399-413, September.
    2. Steenkamp, Daan & Erasmus, Ruan, 2022. "Term premium estimation for South Africa," MPRA Paper 114895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    4. Luchelle Soobyah & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Term premium and rate expectation estimates from the South African yield curve," Working Papers 9998, South African Reserve Bank.
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    6. Robert Elsasser & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Treasury inflation-indexed debt: a review of the U.S. experience," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 47-63.
    7. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
    8. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    9. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Do Central Bank Liquidity Facilities Affect Interbank Lending Rates?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 136-151, January.
    10. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2015. "A probability-based stress test of Federal Reserve assets and income," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 26-43.
    11. Daan Steenkamp & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Rossouw van Jaarsveld & Roy Havemann, 2022. "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," ERSA Working Paper Series 876, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    12. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    13. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    14. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    15. Adrian, Tobias & Crump, Richard K. & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 110-138.
    16. Tim Olds & Daan Steenkamp, "undated". "Estimates of bank-level funding costs in South Africa," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2021:i::id:67, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    17. Roy Havemann & Henk Janse van Vuuren & Daan Steenkamp & Rossouw van Jaarsveld, "undated". "The bond market impact of the South African Reserve Bank bond purchase programme," ERSA Working Paper Series v::y:2022:i::id:38, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    18. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff & Hanno Lustig, 2014. "The TIPS-Treasury Bond Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 2151-2197, October.
    19. Daan Steenkamp & Tim Olds, 2021. "Estimates of bank-level funding costs in South Africa," ERSA Working Paper Series 857, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    20. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    21. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
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    23. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    24. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    25. Jens H. E. Christensen & Daan Steenkamp, 2025. "Joint estimation of liquidity and credit risk premia in bond prices with an application," Working Papers 11074, South African Reserve Bank.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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