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German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, Yet Undervalued

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen
  • Sarah Mouabbi
  • Caroline M. Paulson

Abstract

We document that German inflation-linked government bond yields contain a convenience or safety premium averaging 0.33 percent. Despite that, the German Federal Finance Agency decided to cease all future issuance of these bonds in November 2023. We examine the market response to this announcement and find that neither the safety premia nor the trading conditions of these bonds have been negatively impacted. Hence, this bond market remains a rich source of information on real rates in the euro area in addition to offering investors a safe inflation-protected asset.

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  • Jens H. E. Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi & Caroline M. Paulson, 2025. "German Inflation-Linked Bonds: Overpriced, Yet Undervalued," Working Paper Series 2025-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:99506
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2025-03
    Note: Original publication date: 2025-01-31
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    9. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Lopez, Jose A. & Mussche, Paul L., 2024. "International evidence on extending sovereign debt maturities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    10. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2019. "A New Normal for Interest Rates? Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Debt," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(5), pages 933-949, December.
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    14. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2022. "Monetary reforms and inflation expectations in Japan: Evidence from inflation-indexed bonds," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 410-431.
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    17. Andreasen, Martin M. & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2019. "Term Structure Analysis with Big Data: One-Step Estimation Using Bond Prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 26-46.
    18. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
    19. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    20. Jens Christensen & Sarah Mouabbi, 2024. "The Natural Rate of Interest in the Euro Area: Evidence from Inflation-Indexed Bonds," Working papers 948, Banque de France.
    21. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
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    1. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Mirkov, Nikola N. & Zhang, Xin, 2025. "Quantitative easing and the supply of safe assets: Evidence from international bond safety premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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