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A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile

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Abstract

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers intensely debated the extent of the decline in the steady-state short-term real interest rate—the so-called equilibrium or natural rate of interest. Given the recent sharp increase in interest rates, we revisit this question in an emerging bond market context and offer a Chilean perspective using a dynamic term structure finance model estimated directly on the prices of individual Chilean inflation indexed bonds with adjustments for bond-specific liquidity risk and real term premia. We estimate that the equilibrium real rate in Chile fell about 2 and a half percentage points in the 2003-2022 period and has remained low since then.

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  • Luis Ceballos & Jens H. E. Christensen & Damian Romero, 2024. "A Post-Pandemic New Normal for Interest Rates in Emerging Bond Markets? Evidence from Chile," Working Paper Series 2024-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97796
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2024-04
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    affine arbitrage-free term structure model; financial market frictions; monetary policy; rstar;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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