IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dnb/dnbwpp/838.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hedging against inflation: International evidence on investor clientele effects in the bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Martijn Boermans

Abstract

Governments across the world have issued inflation-linked debt to finance their deficits. Recent advances in asset pricing models recognize that there may be clientele effects that affect relative prices, especially in bond markets. We study investor demand for inflation-linked bonds using detailed bond portfolio data. Our analysis reveals pronounced market segmentation: insurance companies, with predominantly nominal liabilities, underinvest in inflation-linked securities, while pension funds overinvest. Investors hedging inflation risk exhibit a strong preference for bonds indexed to domestic rather than foreign inflation. A regulatory reform announcement provides quasi-experimental evidence that the demand for inflation-linked bonds may be shaped by regulatory requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Martijn Boermans, 2025. "Hedging against inflation: International evidence on investor clientele effects in the bond market," Working Papers 838, DNB.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:838
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dnb.nl/media/0fwf555p/working_paper_no-838.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fabio Braggion & Felix von & Nic Schaub & Tarun Ramadorai, 2023. "Inflation and Individual Investors’ Behavior: Evidence from the German Hyperinflation," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 36(12), pages 5012-5045.
    2. Daniella Acker & Nigel W. Duck, 2013. "Do Investors Suffer from Money Illusion? A Direct Test of the Modigliani--Cohn Hypothesis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 565-596.
    3. Lugo, Stefano & Piccillo, Giulia, 2019. "The Relation between Corporate and Government Debt Maturity in Europe," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(5), pages 2119-2140, October.
    4. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 63-115, March.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    7. Kwak, Minsuk & Lim, Byung Hwa, 2014. "Optimal portfolio selection with life insurance under inflation risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 59-71.
    8. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(1), pages 395-436, February.
    9. J. M. Culbertson, 1957. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 71(4), pages 485-517.
    10. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2010. "A Gap‐Filling Theory of Corporate Debt Maturity Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 993-1028, June.
    11. Robin Greenwood & Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, 2018. "The Impact of Pensions and Insurance on Global Yield Curves," Harvard Business School Working Papers 18-109, Harvard Business School, revised Dec 2018.
    12. Roland Beck & Antonio Coppola & Angus Lewis & Matteo Maggiori & Martin Schmitz & Jesse Schreger, 2024. "The geography of capital allocation in the euro area," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), External statistics in a fragmented and uncertain world, volume 62, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1shj1p7td8e0r5c9fcsnk8a91 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i::p:755-806 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Stéphane Guibaud & Yves Nosbusch & Dimitri Vayanos, 2013. "Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1914-1961.
    16. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2019. "A Demand System Approach to Asset Pricing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1475-1515.
    17. Gautam Nair & Federico Sturzenegger, 2024. "Great Dilution: The Global Impact of the US Inflation Shock on Sovereign Debt," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 1238-1277, September.
    18. Swinkels, Laurens, 2018. "Simulating historical inflation-linked bond returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 374-389.
    19. Kubitza, Christian, 2021. "Investor-driven corporate finance: Evidence from insurance markets," ICIR Working Paper Series 43/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    20. Geert Bekaert & Xiaozheng Wang, 2010. "Inflation risk and the inflation risk premium [Do macro variables, asset markets or surveys forecast inflation better?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 755-806.
    21. Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2022. "Inflation Hedging on Main Street? Evidence from Retail TIPS Fund Flows," CEPR Discussion Papers 17695, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    23. S.P. Kothari & Jay Shanken, 2004. "Asset Allocation with Inflation-Protected Bonds," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(1), pages 54-70, January.
    24. Suleyman Basak & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Equilibrium Asset Prices and Investor Behaviour in the Presence of Money Illusion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(3), pages 914-936.
    25. Bekaert, Geert & Ermolov, Andrey, 2023. "International Yield Comovements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 250-288, February.
    26. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2023. "Corrigendum: A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(3), pages 31-32, May.
    27. Ponds, Eduard H. M. & Riel, Bart Van, 2009. "Sharing risk: the Netherlands' new approach to pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 91-105, January.
    28. Chen, D.H.J. & Beetsma, R.M.W.J. & van Wijnbergen, S.J.G., 2020. "Unhedgeable inflation risk within pension schemes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 7-24.
    29. Anna Cieslak & Carolin Pflueger, 2023. "Inflation and Asset Returns," NBER Working Papers 30982, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Murray, Scott & Nikolova, Stanislava, 2022. "The Bond-Pricing Implications of Rating-Based Capital Requirements," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(6), pages 2177-2207, September.
    31. Dietrich Domanski & Hyun Song Shin & Vladyslav Sushko, 2017. "The Hunt for Duration: Not Waving but Drowning?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(1), pages 113-153, April.
    32. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 155-208, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Abraham Lioui & Andrea Tarelli, 2023. "Money Illusion and TIPS Demand," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(1), pages 171-214, February.
    34. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Motohiro Yogo, 2023. "Understanding the Ownership Structure of Corporate Bonds," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-92, March.
    35. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    36. Boermans, Martijn A. & van der Kroft, Bram, 2024. "Capital regulation induced reaching for systematic yield: Financial instability through fire sales," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    37. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia, 2019. "Inflation-linked public debt in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 313-334.
    38. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Hélène Rey, 2013. "Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473901, HAL.
    39. Huang, Huaxiong & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2011. "Lifetime ruin minimization: should retirees hedge inflation or just worry about it?," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 363-387, July.
    40. Martin M Andreasen & Jens H E Christensen & Simon Riddell, 2021. "The TIPS Liquidity Premium [Decomposing real and nominal yield curves]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(6), pages 1639-1675.
    41. Nishant Dass & Massimo Massa, 2014. "The Variety of Maturities Offered by Firms and Institutional Investment in Corporate Bonds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 2219-2266.
    42. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
    43. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:25:y:2010:i::p:755-806 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. Rogier Quaedvlieg & Peter Schotman, 2022. "Hedging Long-Term Liabilities [Pricing the Term Structure with Linear Regressions]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(3), pages 505-538.
    45. Robin Greenwood & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "Price Pressure in the Government Bond Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 585-590, May.
    46. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1996. "A Scorecard for Indexed Government Data," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1758, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    47. Sven Klingler & Suresh Sundaresan, 2019. "An Explanation of Negative Swap Spreads: Demand for Duration from Underfunded Pension Plans," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 675-710, April.
    48. Andrey Ermolov, 2021. "When and Where Is It Cheaper to Issue Inflation-Linked Debt?," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(3), pages 610-653.
    49. Anna Cieslak & Carolin Pflueger, 2023. "Inflation and Asset Returns," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 15(1), pages 433-448, November.
    50. Butler, Alexander W. & Gao, Xiang & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2023. "Maturity Clienteles and Corporate Bond Maturities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 1263-1294, May.
    51. Bruce D Grundy & Sjoerd van Bekkum & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2024. "Complementarity of sovereign and corporate debt issuance: mind the gap," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 28(4), pages 1187-1213.
    52. Ivo J.M. Arnold, 2015. "One index fits none: the conundrum of euro area inflation-linked bonds," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 575-583, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robin Greenwood & Samuel Hanson & Dimitri Vayanos, 2023. "Supply and Demand and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 31879, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kubitza, Christian & Grochola, Nicolaus & Gründl, Helmut, 2021. "Life insurance convexity," ICIR Working Paper Series 42/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).
    3. Jansen, Kristy, 2021. "Essays on institutional investors, portfolio choice, and asset prices," Other publications TiSEM fd998408-d282-4e0f-b542-4, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Ceballos, Luis & Christensen, Jens H.E. & Romero, Damian, 2025. "A post-pandemic new normal for interest rates in emerging bond markets? Evidence from Chile," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Kristy Jansen, 2023. "Long-term Investors, Demand Shifts, and Yields," Working Papers 769, DNB.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller & Luis M. Viceira, 2009. "Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 79-138.
    7. Lugo, Stefano, 2025. "Inequality and capital structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    8. Lugo, Stefano, 2021. "Short-term debt catering," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Carolin E. Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Return Predictability in the Treasury Market: Real Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity," Harvard Business School Working Papers 11-094, Harvard Business School, revised Sep 2013.
    10. Gabriele Zinna, 2016. "Price Pressures on UK Real Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(4), pages 1587-1630.
    11. Dottori, Davide & Manna, Michele, 2016. "Strategy and tactics in public debt management," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-25.
    12. Alpanda, Sami & Aysun, Uluc & Kabaca, Serdar, 2024. "International portfolio rebalancing and fiscal policy spillovers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    13. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Discussion Paper 2021-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    14. Barbu, Alexandru & Fricke, Christoph & Mönch, Emanuel, 2020. "Procyclical asset management and bond risk premia," Discussion Papers 38/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Martijn Boermans & Tomás Carrera de Souza & Robert Vermeulen, 2025. "Quantitative easing and preferred habitat investors in the euro area bond market," Working Papers 826, DNB.
    16. Grishchenko, Olesya V., 2011. "Asset pricing in the production economy subject to monetary shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 187-216, May.
    17. Jason Allen & Jakub Kastl & Milena Wittwer, 2020. "Primary Dealers and the Demand for Government Debt," Working Papers 2020-27, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    18. Jason Allen & Jakub Kastl & Milena Wittwer, 2020. "Maturity Composition and the Demand for Government Debt," Staff Working Papers 20-29, Bank of Canada.
    19. Westerhout, Ed, 2021. "Inflation-Linked Bonds, Nominal Bonds, and Countercyclical Monetary Policies," Other publications TiSEM ee384b1f-4e6f-4f30-821e-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Kubitza, Christian, 2021. "Investor-driven corporate finance: Evidence from insurance markets," ICIR Working Paper Series 43/21, Goethe University Frankfurt, International Center for Insurance Regulation (ICIR).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:838. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: DNB (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dnbgvnl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.