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Decomposing Euro-Area Sovereign Spreads: Credit and Liquidity Risks

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  • Alain Monfort
  • Jean-Paul Renne

Abstract

This article presents an intensity-based model of euro-area sovereign spreads. To identify liquidity-pricing effects, we exploit the information contained in the spreads between bonds issued by a German agency (KfW) and their sovereign counterparts. KfW’s liabilities being guaranteed by the German government, these spreads are essentially liquidity-driven. Liquidity effects are found to account for a sizeable share of spreads’ fluctuations. After having filtered risk premiums out of the spreads, we estimate the physical default probabilities of eleven countries. Physical probabilities of default are lower than risk-neutral ones, consistently with the existence of a nondiversifiable euro-area sovereign credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2014. "Decomposing Euro-Area Sovereign Spreads: Credit and Liquidity Risks," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(6), pages 2103-2151.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:revfin:v:18:y:2014:i:6:p:2103-2151.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rof/rft049
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Gente, Karine & Monsia, Frédia, 2016. "Macroeconomic imbalances, financial stress and fiscal vulnerability in the euro area before the debt crises: A market view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 123-146.
    2. repec:eee:jimfin:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:56-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Jeanneret, Alexandre & Souissi, Slim, 2016. "Sovereign defaults by currency denomination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 197-222.
    4. De Santis, Roberto A. & Stein, Michael, 2016. "Correlation changes between the risk-free rate and sovereign yields of euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1979, European Central Bank.
    5. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2015. "Decomposing euro area sovereign spreads: credit, liquidity and convenience," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1021, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Dubecq, Simon & Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2016. "Credit and liquidity in interbank rates: A quadratic approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 29-46.
    7. repec:eee:insuma:v:81:y:2018:i:c:p:117-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    9. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
    10. repec:eee:japwor:v:49:y:2019:i:c:p:61-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Moisă Altăr & Alexandru-Adrian Cramer & Adam-Nelu Altăr-Samuel, 2015. "Sovereign Financial Asset Market Linkages across Europe During the Euro Zone Debt Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 29-49, December.
    12. Driessen, Joost & Nijman, Theodore E. & Simon, Zorka, 2018. "Much ado about nothing: A study of differential pricing and liquidity of short and long term bonds," SAFE Working Paper Series 238, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    13. repec:eee:jimfin:v:75:y:2017:i:c:p:14-31 is not listed on IDEAS

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