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The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality

Author

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  • Ejsing, Jacob
  • Garcí­a, Juan Angel
  • Werner, Thomas

Abstract

This paper provides a toolkit for extracting accurate information about inflation expectations using inflation-linked bonds. First, we show how to estimate term structures of zero-coupon real rates and break-even inflation rates (BEIRs) in the euro area. This improves the analysis of developments in inflation expectations by providing constant maturity measures. Second, we show that seasonality in consumer prices introduces misleading and quantitatively important time-varying distortions in the calculated BEIRs. We explain how to correct for this in the estimation of the term structure, and thus provide a unified framework for extracting constant maturity BEIRs corrected for seasonality. JEL Classification: E31, E43, G12

Suggested Citation

  • Ejsing, Jacob & Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "The term structure of euro area break-even inflation rates: the impact of seasonality," Working Paper Series 830, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007830
    Note: 807173
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Schulz & Jelena Stapf, 2011. "Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 202-231, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Camba-Méndez, Gonzalo & Werner, Thomas, 2017. "The inflation risk premium in the post-Lehman period," Working Paper Series 2033, European Central Bank.
    3. Petra M. Geraats, 2008. "ECB Credibility and Transparency," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 330, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Schulz, Alexander & Stapf, Jelena, 2009. "Price discovery on traded inflation expectations: does the financial crisis matter?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,25, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2017. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del Gobierno colombiano," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 78, February.
    6. Gilbert Cette & Marielle de Jong, 2013. "Breakeven inflation rates and their puzzling correlation relationships," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2579-2585, June.
    7. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    8. Mervyn King & David Low, 2014. "Measuring the ''World'' Real Interest Rate," NBER Working Papers 19887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Balazs VARGA & Zsolt DARVAS, 2010. "Time-Varying Coefficient Methods to Measure Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2010 259600167, EcoMod.
    10. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Garcí­a, Juan Angel, 2009. "What drives euro area break-even inflation rates?," Working Paper Series 996, European Central Bank.
    11. Alberto Di Iorio & Marco Fanari, 2020. "Break-even inflation rates: the Italian case," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 578, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
    13. Garcí­a, Juan Angel & Werner, Thomas, 2010. "Inflation risks and inflation risk premia," Working Paper Series 1162, European Central Bank.
    14. Flávio de Freitas Val & Gustavo Silva Araujo, 2022. "Breakeven Inflation Rate Estimation: an alternative approach considering indexation lag and seasonality," Working Papers Series 493, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Lemke, Wolfgang & Strohsal, Till, 2013. "What Can Break-Even Inflation Rates Tell Us about the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area?," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79794, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Golden, Brian & Monks, Allen, 2009. "Measuring Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 67-84, January.
    17. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
    18. Juan Andrés Espinosa-Torres & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandía & José Fernando Moreno-Gutiérrez, 2015. "Expectativas de inflación, prima de riesgo inflacionario y prima de liquidez: una descomposición del break-even inflation para los bonos del gobierno colombiano," Borradores de Economia 13700, Banco de la Republica.
    19. Pedro Pires Ribeiro & José Dias Curto, 2018. "How do zero-coupon inflation swaps predict inflation rates in the euro area? Evidence of efficiency and accuracy on 1-year contracts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1451-1475, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    break-even inflation rates; inflation-linked bonds; inflation seasonality; term structure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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