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Alternative Inflation Hedging Portfolio Strategies: Going Forward Under Immoderate Macroeconomics

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  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas

Abstract

Gone are the days when inflation fears had receded under years of 'Great Moderation' in macroeconomics. The US subprime financial crisis, the ensuing 'Great Recession' and the sovereign debt scares that spread throughout much of the industrialized world brought about a new order characterized by higher inflation volatility, severe commodity price shocks and uncertainty over sovereign bond creditworthiness to name just a few. All of which tend to put in jeopardy both conventional inflation protected strategies and nominal unhedged ones: from reduced issues of linkers to negative long-term real rates, they call into question the viability of current strategies. This paper investigates those game changing events and their asset liability management consequences for retail and institutional investors. Three alternative ways to achieve real value protection are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Alternative Inflation Hedging Portfolio Strategies: Going Forward Under Immoderate Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 42854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42854
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/46488/1/MPRA_paper_46488.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefania D'Amico & Don H Kim & Min Wei, 2008. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," BIS Working Papers 248, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads; Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 10/120, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Baumeister, Christiane & Benati, Luca, 2010. "Unconventional monetary policy and the great recession - Estimating the impact of a compression in the yield spread at the zero lower bound," Working Paper Series 1258, European Central Bank.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern02-1, January.
    5. Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2007. "Why has Core Inflation Remained so Muted in the Face of the Oil Shock?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 551, OECD Publishing.
    6. Zhang, Aihua & Korn, Ralf & Ewald, Christian-Oliver, 2007. "Optimal management and inflation protection for defined contribution pension plans," MPRA Paper 3300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "A Dynamic Inflation Hedging Trading Strategy Using a CPPI," MPRA Paper 42851, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Nov 2012.
    8. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas & Palidda, Ernesto, 2012. "Swapping Headline for Core Inflation: An Asset Liability Management Approach," MPRA Paper 42853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2012.
    9. Juan Angel Garcia & Adrian van Rixtel, 2007. "Inflation-linked bonds from a central bank perspective," Occasional Papers 0705, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
    10. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2002. "Dynamic Asset Allocation under Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1201-1238, June.
    11. Zvi Bodie, 1988. "Inflation, Index-Linked Bonds, and Asset Allocation," NBER Working Papers 2793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation hedging; portfolio allocation; alternative investment; commodities; real rates; core Inflation; global macro; inflation pass-through; strategic allocation; portfolio insurance; Great Recession;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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