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Swapping Headline for Core Inflation: An Asset Liability Management Approach

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  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas
  • Palidda, Ernesto

Abstract

Headline inflation in most industrialized countries, the US in particular, has been shown to be mean reverting to core inflation in the medium term, whilst at the same time the pass-through of exogenous commodity price shocks from the headline to the core has dramatically gone down as a result of a major macroeconomic paradigm change. It yields lower relative volatility for the latter and creates a drive for investing in commodities as a hedge for the spread between both inflation measures. In this paper, we argue for a risk reduction in ALM strategy in the form of a shift from targeting core rather than headline inflation for long-term hedgers while proposing an overlaying core versus headline swap to hedge the potential asset-liability gap. A market curve for core inflation could be derived from the trading of these derivatives and enable easy mark-to-market valuation of any core-linked securities, thus easing the way for future primary issues. Any supply and demand market disequilibria between long-term sellers of headline inflation and short-term sellers of core inflation could be matched by the intermediation of market makers which could price the derivative based on the cross-hedging potential of commodities.

Suggested Citation

  • Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas & Palidda, Ernesto, 2012. "Swapping Headline for Core Inflation: An Asset Liability Management Approach," MPRA Paper 42853, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:42853
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/42853/1/MPRA_paper_42853.pdf
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/43653/1/MPRA_paper_43653.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gelos, Gaston & Ustyugova, Yulia, 2017. "Inflation responses to commodity price shocks – How and why do countries differ?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 28-47.
    2. Wynne, Mark A., 1999. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Working Paper Series 5, European Central Bank.
    3. Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2007. "Why has Core Inflation Remained so Muted in the Face of the Oil Shock?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 551, OECD Publishing.
    4. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
    5. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue may, pages 205-228.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bern02-1.
    7. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    8. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Alternative Inflation Hedging Portfolio Strategies: Going Forward Under Immoderate Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 42854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ALM; LDI; Long-term Investment; Inflation Hedging; Core Inflation; Commodities; Inflation Pass-through; Arbitrage Pricing; Synthetic Futures; Inflation Derivative;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q0 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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