ECB Credibility and Transparency
This paper argues that ECB credibility in delivering price stability is being progressively eroded; this problem could be overcome by embracing greater transparency especially about the ECB's objectives, macroeconomic forecasts and decision-making.Â During the ECB's first decade, average inflation in the euro area has been low, but it has failed to meet the ECB's criterion of below but close to 2% over the medium term. Although this could be attributed to unanticipated shocks, the analysis in this paper points to some structural shortcomings. In particular, there has been an upward trend in medium and long term inflation expectations in the euro area, which have even reached over 2%, and the credibility of the ECB achieving price stability in the medium term has gradually eroded to critically low levels. In addition, there is evidence that medium and long term inflation expectations are negatively affected by the inflation experience of the euro area. However, this paper argues that these problems could be overcome embracing by greater transparency, especially about the ECB's objectives, macroeconomic forecasts and decision-making.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2008|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Inter-institutional relations and communication Unit, B-1049 Brussels|
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Marco Arnone & Bernard J Laurens & Jean-François Segalotto & Martin Sommer, 2009.
"Central Bank Autonomy: Lessons from Global Trends,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(2), pages 263-296, June.
- Leitemo, Kai, 2003. " Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P.M., 2004.
"How Transparent Are Central Banks?,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0411, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Geraats, Petra M, 2002. "How Transparent are Central Banks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3188, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Geraats, P., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," Other publications TiSEM b34dfb1f-520f-4787-a08f-5, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Geraats Petra M., 2005.
"Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, February.
- Geraats, P.M., 2004. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0473, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
- N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why, and with What Effects?," NBER Working Papers 13003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Petra Gerlach-Kristen, 2004. "Is the MPC's Voting Record Informative about Future UK Monetary Policy?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 106(2), pages 299-313, 06.
- W.H. Buiter, 1999.
"Alice in Euroland,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0423, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2002.
"Does it pay to be transparent? international evidence form central bank forecasts,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 99-118.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2001. "Does it pay to be transparent? International evidence from central bank forecasts," Bank of England working papers 143, Bank of England.
- van der Cruijsen, Carin & Demertzis, Maria, 2007.
"The impact of central bank transparency on inflation expectations,"
European Journal of Political Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-66, March.
- Carin van der Cruijsen & Maria Demertzis, 2005. "The Impact of Central Bank Transparency on Inflation Expectations," DNB Working Papers 031, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Gersbach, Hans & Hahn, Volker, 2005.
"Voting Transparency in a Monetary Union,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5155, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
- Otmar Issing, 1999. "The Eurosystem: Transparent andAccountable or 'Willem in Euroland'," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(3), pages 503-519, 09.
- Georgios Chortareas & David Stasavage & Gabriel Sterne, 2003. "Does monetary policy transparency reduce disinflation costs?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 521-540, 09.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Communication and decision-making by central bank committees: different strategies, same effectiveness?," Working Paper Series 0488, European Central Bank.
- Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2007.
"Explaining monetary policy in press conferences,"
Working Paper Series
0767, European Central Bank.
- Petra M. Geraats, 2006.
"Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice,"
CESifo Economic Studies,
CESifo, vol. 52(1), pages 111-152, March.
- Petra Geraats, 2005. "Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," CESifo Working Paper Series 1597, CESifo Group Munich.
- Geraats, P.M, 2005. "Transparency of Monetary Policy: Theory and Practice," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0549, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2005. "Central Bank Transparency and the Signal Value of Prices," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2), pages 1-66.
- Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.