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Probabilistic Interest Rate Setting With A Shadow Board: A Description Of The Pilot Project

  • TIMO HENCKEL

    ()

  • SHAUN VAHEY

    ()

  • LIZ WAKERLY

    ()

This study aims to assess the scope for monetary policymakers to aggregate probabilistic interest rate advice. The members of a Shadow Board give probabilistic assessments of the appropriate (target) interest rate for Australia in real time. The pilot project will be running in August, September and October 2011, with the Shadow Board giving advice shortly before each decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board.

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File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/pdf/working-papers/2011/272011.pdf
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Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2011-27.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2011-27
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  1. Anne Sibert, 1999. "Monetary Policy Committees: Individual and Collective Reputations," CESifo Working Paper Series 226, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Sibert, Anne, 2006. "Central Banking by Committee," CEPR Discussion Papers 5626, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Petra M. Geraats, 2007. "The Mystique of Central Bank Speak," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 37-80, March.
  4. Anne-Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2008. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Working Paper 2008/01, Norges Bank.
  5. Carin van der Cruijsen & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2010. "How much does the public know about the ECB's monetary policy? Evidence from a survey of Duch households," DNB Working Papers 252, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  6. Anke Weber, 2010. "Monetary Policy Committees, Learning, and Communication," IMF Working Papers 10/85, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Berger, Helge & Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2011. "Monetary Policy in the Media," CEPR Discussion Papers 8192, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2009. "Monetary Policy Strategy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262513374, June.
  9. Kenneth F. Wallis, 2005. "Combining Density and Interval Forecasts: A Modest Proposal," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 983-994, December.
  10. Robert L. Winkler, 1968. "The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 15(2), pages B61-B75, October.
  11. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2010. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 231-250.
  12. Roopesh Ranjan & Tilmann Gneiting, 2010. "Combining probability forecasts," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(1), pages 71-91.
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