IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v36y2012i1p121-135.html

Models of the yield curve and the curvature of the implied forward rate function

Author

Listed:
  • Yallup, Peter J.

Abstract

We examine several alternative models of the UK gilt yield curve using daily data for the period 12 July 1996–10 February 2010. We select the best models according to two criteria: low out of sample errors in pricing bonds and low curvature of the implied forward rate curve function. We suggest additions to some of the models that significantly improve their performance. Some of the new models out perform those typically used by the central banks. In particular this paper suggests that the model used by the Canadian Central Bank which both outperforms other models and is particularly easy to estimate, is well suited to the UK gilt market.

Suggested Citation

  • Yallup, Peter J., 2012. "Models of the yield curve and the curvature of the implied forward rate function," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-135.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:121-135
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.06.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426611001993
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.06.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    2. Scott Joslin & Kenneth J. Singleton & Haoxiang Zhu, 2011. "A New Perspective on Gaussian Dynamic Term Structure Models," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(3), pages 926-970.
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Zero-coupon yield curves: technical documentation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 25.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Bolder & Scott Gusba, 2002. "Exponentials, Polynomials, and Fourier Series: More Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-29, Bank of Canada.
    6. McCulloch, J Huston, 1975. "The Tax-Adjusted Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(3), pages 811-830, June.
    7. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    9. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Kimmel, Robert L., 2010. "Estimating affine multifactor term structure models using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 113-144, October.
    10. Jarrow, Robert & Ruppert, David & Yu, Yan, 2004. "Estimating the Interest Rate Term Structure of Corporate Debt With a Semiparametric Penalized Spline Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 57-66, January.
    11. Daniel F. Waggoner, 1997. "Spline methods for extracting interest rate curves from coupon bond prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Poletti Laurini, Márcio & Moura, Marcelo, 2010. "Constrained smoothing B-splines for the term structure of interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 339-350, April.
    13. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    14. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
    15. Siegel, Andrew F. & Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Long-Term Behavior of Yield Curves," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 105-110, March.
    16. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2011. "The affine arbitrage-free class of Nelson-Siegel term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 4-20, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lajos Horváth & Piotr Kokoszka & Jeremy VanderDoes & Shixuan Wang, 2022. "Inference in functional factor models with applications to yield curves," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(6), pages 872-894, November.
    2. Fengler, Matthias R. & Hin, Lin-Yee, 2015. "A simple and general approach to fitting the discount curve under no-arbitrage constraints," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 78-84.
    3. Aryo Sasongko & Cynthia Afriani Utama & Buddi Wibowo & Zaäfri Ananto Husodo, 2019. "Modifying Hybrid Optimisation Algorithms to Construct Spot Term Structure of Interest Rates and Proposing a Standardised Assessment," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 957-1003, October.
    4. Ivailo Arsov & Matthew Brooks & Mitch Kosev, 2013. "New Measures of Australian Corporate Credit Spreads," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 15-26, December.
    5. Butler, Sunil & Kokoszka, Piotr & Miao, Hong & Shang, Han Lin, 2021. "Neural network prediction of crude oil futures using B-splines," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño & Eliseo Navarro, 2020. "Yield curves from different bond data sets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 191-226, July.
    7. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2018. "Zero-coupon interest rates: Evaluating three alternative datasets," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    9. Emrah Ahi & Vedat Akgiray & Emrah Sener, 2018. "Robust term structure estimation in developed and emerging markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 23-49, January.
    10. Jian-hao Kang & Nan-jing Huang & Ben-Zhang Yang & Zhihao Hu, 2025. "Robust Equilibrium Strategy for Mean–Variance–Skewness Portfolio Selection Problem with Long Memory," Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, Springer, vol. 206(2), pages 1-47, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faria, Adriano & Almeida, Caio, 2018. "A hybrid spline-based parametric model for the yield curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 72-94.
    2. Gauthier, Geneviève & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2012. "Linearized Nelson–Siegel and Svensson models for the estimation of spot interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 442-451.
    3. Marcello Pericoli, 2014. "Real Term Structure and Inflation Compensation in the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(1), pages 1-42, March.
    4. Ganchev, Alexander, 2009. "Modeling the yield curve of spot interest rates under the conditions in Bulgaria," MPRA Paper 70048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:erh:journl:v:6:y:2014:i:2:p:78-100 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Monique Reid, 2009. "Isolating A Measure Of Inflation Expectations For The South African Financial Market Using Forward Interest Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 77(3), pages 399-413, September.
    7. Tong, Xiaojun & He, Zhuoqiong Chong & Sun, Dongchu, 2018. "Estimating Chinese Treasury yield curves with Bayesian smoothing splines," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 94-124.
    8. C. Emre Alper & Aras Akdemir & Kazim Kazimov, 2004. "Estimating the Term Structure of Government Securities in Turkey," Working Papers 2004/03, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    9. Gann, Philipp & Laut, Amelie, 2008. "Einflussfaktoren auf den Credit Spread von Unternehmensanleihen," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4231, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    10. Annaert, Jan & Claes, Anouk G.P. & De Ceuster, Marc J.K. & Zhang, Hairui, 2013. "Estimating the spot rate curve using the Nelson–Siegel model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 482-496.
    11. Cem Çakmakli, 2012. "Bayesian Semiparametric Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model," Working Paper series 59_12, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Sep 2012.
    12. M�rcio Poletti Laurini, 2014. "Dynamic functional data analysis with non-parametric state space models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 142-163, January.
    13. Emma Berenguer-Carceles & Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2012. "Estimation of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Methodology and Applications," Working Papers 12.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    14. James M. Steeley, 2008. "Testing Term Structure Estimation Methods: Evidence from the UK STRIPS Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1489-1512, October.
    15. Manousopoulos, Polychronis & Michalopoulos, Michalis, 2009. "Comparison of non-linear optimization algorithms for yield curve estimation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 594-602, January.
    16. Koo, B. & La Vecchia, D. & Linton, O., 2019. "Nonparametric Recovery of the Yield Curve Evolution from Cross-Section and Time Series Information," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1916, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    17. Victor Curtis Lartey & Yao Li, 2018. "Zero-Coupon and Forward Yield Curves for Government of Ghana Bonds," SAGE Open, , vol. 8(3), pages 21582440188, September.
    18. Caldeira, João F. & Moura, Guilherme V. & Santos, André A.P., 2016. "Bond portfolio optimization using dynamic factor models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 128-158.
    19. repec:jss:jstsof:36:i01 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Koo, Bonsoo & La Vecchia, Davide & Linton, Oliver, 2021. "Estimation of a nonparametric model for bond prices from cross-section and time series information," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 562-588.
    21. Brian Barnard, 2019. "Interest Rate Term Structure Decomposition: An Axiomatic," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 84-96, January.
    22. Christensen, Bent Jesper & Kjær, Mads Markvart & Veliyev, Bezirgen, 2023. "The incremental information in the yield curve about future interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:1:p:121-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.