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El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited

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  • David Ubilava

Abstract

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts commodity production and prices around the world. This study revisits fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio dynamics and examines it in relation to the ENSO anomalies. A smooth transition autoregressive modelling framework is applied to assess nonlinearities in the ENSO–price ratio relationship, and generalised impulse–response functions and derived asymmetry functions are utilised to illustrate characteristic features of the estimated model dynamics. The results suggest economically meaningful impacts of ENSO on the price ratio dynamics, and indicate statistical significance of these effects for up to one year after the ENSO shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ubilava, 2014. "El Niño Southern Oscillation and the fishmeal–soya bean meal price ratio: regime-dependent dynamics revisited," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 41(4), pages 583-604.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:41:y:2014:i:4:p:583-604.
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    1. repec:spr:ssefpa:v:9:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-017-0702-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:490-502 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. David Ubilava, 2018. "The Role of El Niño Southern Oscillation in Commodity Price Movement and Predictability," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 239-263.
    4. Ubilava, David, 2017. "The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 490-502.
    5. Asche, Frank & Oglend, Atle, 2016. "The relationship between input-factor and output prices in commodity industries: The case of Norwegian salmon aquaculture," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 35-47.
    6. Peri, Massimo, 2015. "Cliamte Variability and Agricultural Price volatility: the case of corn and soybeans," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 212623, International Association of Agricultural Economists.

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