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El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach

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  • Matteo Bonato
  • Oğuzhan Çepni
  • Rangan Gupta
  • Christian Pierdzioch

Abstract

We examine the predictive value of El Niño and La Niña weather episodes for the subsequent realized variance of 16 agricultural commodity prices. To this end, we use high‐frequency data covering the period from 2009 to 2020 to estimate the realized variance along realized skewness, realized kurtosis, realized jumps, and realized upside and downside tail risks as control variables. Accounting for the impact of the control variables as well as spillover effects from the realized variances of the other agricultural commodities in our sample, we estimate an extended heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model by means of random forests to capture in a purely data‐driven way potentially nonlinear links between El Niño and La Niña and the subsequent realized variance. We document such nonlinear links, and that El Niño and La Niña increase forecast accuracy, especially at longer forecast horizons, for several of the agricultural commodities that we study in this research.

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  • Matteo Bonato & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 785-801, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:42:y:2023:i:4:p:785-801
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2914
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    1. Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "Financial Stress and Realized Volatility: The Case of Agricultural Commodities," Working Papers 202320, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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