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Financialization of food . Modelling the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics

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  • Daniele Girardi

Abstract

This article studies the correlation of agricultural prices with stock market dynamics. We discuss the possible role of financial and macroeconomic factors in driving this time-varying relation, with the aim of understanding what caused positive correlation between agricultural commodities and stocks in recent years. While previous works on commodity-equity correlation have focused on broad commodity indices, we study 16 agricultural prices, in order to assess patterns that are specific to agricultural commodities but also differences across markets. We show that an explanation based on a combination of financialization and financial crisis is consistent with the empirical evidence in most markets, while global demand factors don't appear to play a significant role. The correlation between agricultural prices and stock market returns tends to increase during periods of financial turmoil. The impact of financial turmoil on the correlation gets stronger as the share of financial investors in agricultural derivatives markets rises. Our findings suggest that the influence of financial shocks on agricultural prices should decrease as global financial tensions settle down but also that, as long as agricultural markets are 'financialized', it might rise again when it is less needed, i.e. in the presence of new financial turmoil.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Girardi, 2015. "Financialization of food . Modelling the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 482-505, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:29:y:2015:i:4:p:482-505
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2015.1016406
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    Cited by:

    1. Manisha Pradhananga, 2016. "Financialization and the rise in co-movement of commodity prices," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 547-566, September.
    2. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2020. "A note on financialization from a Classical-Keynesian standpoint," Department of Economics University of Siena 824, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    3. Niu, Hongli & Zhang, Shasha, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of commodity and stock market on Chinese green market: Evidence from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    4. Karol Szafranek, 2015. "Financialisation of the commodity markets. Conclusions from the VARX DCC GARCH," EcoMod2015 8554, EcoMod.
    5. Loretta Mastroeni & Alessandro Mazzoccoli & Greta Quaresima & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2021. "Wavelet analysis and energy-based measures for oil-food price relationship as a footprint of financialisation effect," Papers 2104.11891, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    6. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2022. "Wavelet analysis and energy-based measures for oil-food price relationship as a footprint of financialisation effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Pierluigi Vellucci, 2021. "A critique of financial neoliberalism: a perspective combining multidisciplinary methods and commodity markets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 1-11, March.
    8. Matteo Bonato & Oğuzhan Çepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2023. "El Niño, La Niña, and forecastability of the realized variance of agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from a machine learning approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 785-801, July.
    9. Ouyang, Ruolan & Zhang, Xuan, 2020. "Financialization of agricultural commodities: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 381-389.
    10. Liu, Lu & Zhang, Xiang, 2019. "Financialization and commodity excess spillovers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 195-216.
    11. Wielechowski, Michał & Czech, Katarzyna, 2025. "U.S. Presidential Elections And Agricultural Market Volatility. Is There A “Trump Effect” On Grain Commodities?," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2025(1).
    12. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2019. "The Impact of Financialization on the Rate of Profit: A Discussion," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP36, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
    13. Sania Wadud & Robert D. Durand & Marc Gronwald, 2021. "Connectedness between the Crude Oil Futures and Equity Markets during the Pre- and Post-Financialisation Eras," CESifo Working Paper Series 9202, CESifo.
    14. Dutta, Anupam & Soytas, Ugur & Das, Debojyoti & Bhattacharyya, Asit, 2022. "In search of time-varying jumps during the turmoil periods: Evidence from crude oil futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture

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