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Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Parra-Amado

    (Banco de la República)

  • Davinson Stev Abril-Salcedo

    (Universidad Nacional)

  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia

    (Banco de la República)

Abstract

En este documento se estima el impacto de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el crecimiento de la inflación de alimentos. Para ello se utilizan funciones de impulso-respuesta generalizadas de un modelo no lineal de transición suave para la inflación de alimentos y las anomalías del índice de la temperatura superficial del mar 3,4 (ENSO). Este análisis se realiza para el periodo mensual comprendido entre junio de 1955 y mayo del 2015. Los resultados obtenidos indican que estos choques son transitorios y asimétricos. En particular, un choque positivo y fuerte sobre ENSO tiene un efecto significativo sobre el crecimiento de la inflación de alimentos y la incrementa en 72,5 y 100 puntos básicos en el cuarto y quinto mes después de la perturbación, respectivamente.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Parra-Amado & Davinson Stev Abril-Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia, 2016. "Impactos de los fenómenos climáticos sobre el precio de los alimentos en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(80), pages 146-158, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:34:y:2016:i:80:p:146-158
    DOI: 10.1016/j.espe.2016.03.003
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    2. Iregui, Ana María & Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús, 2021. "Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 290-314.
    3. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    4. Villa-Loaiza, Carlos & Taype-Huaman, Irvin & Benavides-Franco, Julián & Buenaventura-Vera, Guillermo & Carabalí-Mosquera, Jaime, 2023. "Does climate impact the relationship between the energy price and the stock market? The Colombian case," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    5. Romero, José Vicente & Naranjo-Saldarriaga, Sara, 2024. "Weather shocks and inflation expectations in semi-structural models," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(2).
    6. Davinson Stev Abril‐Salcedo & Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2020. "Nonlinear relationship between the weather phenomenon El niño and Colombian food prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 64(4), pages 1059-1086, October.
    7. Darío F. Jiménez & Sergio A. Orrego & Daniel M. Cossio & Felipe A. Vásquez & Roberto D. Ponce, 2017. "Efecto de la variabilidad climática sobre la demanda de agua para uso residencial urbano: el caso de la ciudad de Manizales, Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, vol. 79(3), August.
    8. Valeria Bejarano-Salcedo & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Edgar Caicedo-García & Julián Alonso Cárdenas-Cárdenas, 2020. "Entendiendo, Modelando y Pronosticando el Efecto de “El Niño” Sobre los Precios de los Alimentos: El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 1102, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fenómenos climáticos; Modelos no lineales de transición suave; Precios de alimentos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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