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Do natural disasters and the announcement of ENSO events have an impact on market-based measures of inflation expectations?

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Bermudez-Cespedes
  • Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia
  • Daniel Parra-Amado

Abstract

This research investigates the influence of natural disasters and climate-related announcements, particularly those associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), on inflation expectations within the Colombian economy. Employing an event study framework, we analyze daily data on inflation expectations derived from the Colombian public debt market spanning October 2004 to August 2022, in conjunction with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and ENSO announcements from international agencies. Our findings provide evidence that both types of events significantly influence the mean of the inflation expectations. Moreover, while natural disasters increase the volatility of inflation expectations, ENSO announcements do not exhibit a similar effect. *****RESUMEN: Esta investigación analiza la influencia de los desastres naturales y los anuncios relacionados con el clima, en particular aquellos asociados con el fenómeno de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO), sobre las expectativas de inflación en la economía colombiana. Empleando un enfoque de estudio de eventos donde se analizan datos diarios de expectativas de inflación derivadas del mercado de deuda pública de Colombia, abarcando el período de octubre de 2004 a agosto de 2022, en conjunto con la base de datos de eventos de emergencia (EM-DAT) y los anuncios de ENSO emitidos por agencias internacionales. Nuestros hallazgos evidencian que ambos tipos de eventos influyen significativamente en la media de las expectativas de inflación. Además, mientras que los desastres naturales aumentan la volatilidad de estas expectativas, los anuncios de ENSO no muestran un efecto similar.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Bermudez-Cespedes & Luis Fernando Melo-Velandia & Daniel Parra-Amado, 2025. "Do natural disasters and the announcement of ENSO events have an impact on market-based measures of inflation expectations?," Borradores de Economia 1315, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1315
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1315
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural disasters; inflation expectations; GARCH; Event study; Desastres naturales; Expectativas de inflación; Estudio de eventos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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