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Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability

Author

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  • Faccia, Donata
  • Parker, Miles
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

We contribute to the debate surrounding central banks and climate change by investigating how extreme temperatures affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy. Using panel local projections for 48 advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs), we study the impact of country-specific temperature shocks on a range of prices: consumer prices, including the food and non-food components, producer prices and the GDP deflator. Hot summers increase food price inflation in the near term, especially in EMEs. But over the medium term, the impact across the various price indices tends to be either insignificant or negative. Such effect is largely non-linear, being more significant for larger shocks and at higher absolute temperatures. We also provide simulations from a two-country model to understand the rationale behind the results. Overall, our results suggest that temperature plays a non-negligible role in driving medium-term price developments. Climate change matters for price stability. JEL Classification: E03, E31, Q51, Q54

Suggested Citation

  • Faccia, Donata & Parker, Miles & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability," Working Paper Series 2626, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212626
    Note: 335958
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2626~e86e2be2b4.en.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Natoli, Filippo, 2022. "Temperature surprise shocks," MPRA Paper 112568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Musso, Alberto & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Evolution of the ECB’s analytical framework," Occasional Paper Series 277, European Central Bank.
    3. Chaitat Jirophat & Pym Manopimoke & Suparit Suwanik, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 188, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; extreme temperatures; inflation; panel local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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