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Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability

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  • Faccia, Donata
  • Parker, Miles
  • Stracca, Livio

Abstract

We contribute to the debate surrounding central banks and climate change by investigating how extreme temperatures affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy. Using panel local projections for 48 advanced and emerging market economies (EMEs), we study the impact of country-specific temperature shocks on a range of prices: consumer prices, including the food and non-food components, producer prices and the GDP deflator. Hot summers increase food price inflation in the near term, especially in EMEs. But over the medium term, the impact across the various price indices tends to be either insignificant or negative. Such effect is largely non-linear, being more significant for larger shocks and at higher absolute temperatures. We also provide simulations from a two-country model to understand the rationale behind the results. Overall, our results suggest that temperature plays a non-negligible role in driving medium-term price developments. Climate change matters for price stability. JEL Classification: E03, E31, Q51, Q54

Suggested Citation

  • Faccia, Donata & Parker, Miles & Stracca, Livio, 2021. "Feeling the heat: extreme temperatures and price stability," Working Paper Series 2626, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20212626
    Note: 335958
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    3. di Giovanni, Julian & Del Negro, Marco & Dogra, Keshav, 2023. "Is the Green Transition Inflationary?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17906, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Natoli, Filippo, 2022. "Temperature surprise shocks," MPRA Paper 112568, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chiara Colesanti Senni & Maria Sole Pagliari & Jens van ‘t Klooster, 2023. "The CO2 content of the TLTRO III scheme and its greening," Working Papers 792, DNB.
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    7. Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Germana Giombini & Edgar J. Sánchez-Carrera, 2023. "Climateflation and monetary policy in an environmental OLG growth model," Department of Economics University of Siena 905, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    8. Tobias Kranz & Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Climate Change: Challenges and the Role of Major Central Banks," Research Papers in Economics 2024-01, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    9. Kotz, Maximilian & Kuik, Friderike & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane, 2023. "The impact of global warming on inflation: averages, seasonality and extremes," Working Paper Series 2821, European Central Bank.
    10. Erwan Gautier & Christoph Grosse Steffen & Magali Marx & Paul Vertier, 2023. "Decomposing the Inflation Response to Weather-Related Disasters," Working papers 935, Banque de France.
    11. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Musso, Alberto & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "Evolution of the ECB’s analytical framework," Occasional Paper Series 277, European Central Bank.
    12. Andreas Breitenfellner & Friedrich Fritzer & Doris Prammer & Fabio Rumler & Mirjam Salish, 2022. "What is the impact of carbon pricing on inflation in Austria?," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3/22, pages 23-41.
    13. Thibault Lemaire & Paul Vertier, 2023. "International Commodity Prices Transmission to Consumer Prices in Africa," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-03944888, HAL.
    14. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "How Persistent are Climate-Related Price Shocks? Implications for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2022/207, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Chaitat Jirophat & Pym Manopimoke & Suparit Suwanik, 2022. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Shocks in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 188, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Pablo Garcia Sanchez, 2022. "Introduction to weather extremes and monetary policy," BCL working papers 163, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    17. Drudi, Francesco & Moench, Emanuel & Holthausen, Cornelia & Weber, Pierre-François & Ferrucci, Gianluigi & Setzer, Ralph & Adao, Bernardino & Dées, Stéphane & Alogoskoufis, Spyros & Téllez, Mar Delgad, 2021. "Climate change and monetary policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 271, European Central Bank.
    18. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Kuik, Friderike & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "The outlook is mixed: the asymmetric effects of weather shocks on inflation," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 111.
    19. Jannik Hensel & Giacomo Mangiante & Luca Moretti, 2023. "Carbon pricing and inflation expectations: evidence from France," ECON - Working Papers 434, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Filippo Natoli, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of temperature surprise shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; extreme temperatures; inflation; panel local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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