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Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle

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  • Emilio Zanetti Chini

    (Department of Economics and Management, University of Pavia)

Abstract

The Generalized Smooth Transition Auto-Regression (GSTAR) parametrizes the joint asymmetry in the duration and length of cycles in macroeconomic time series by using particular generalizations of the logistic function. The symmetric smooth transition and linear auto-regressions are peculiar cases of the new parametrization. A test for the null hypothesis of dynamic symmetry is discussed. Two case studies indicate that dynamic asymmetry is a key feature of the U.S. economy. Our model beats its competitors in point forecasting, but this superiority becomes less evident in density forecasting and in uncertain forecasting environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilio Zanetti Chini, 2018. "Forecasting dynamically asymmetric fluctuations of the U.S. business cycle," DEM Working Papers Series 156, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:pav:demwpp:demwp0156
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    Cited by:

    1. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2019. "Modelling Housing Market Cycles in Global Cities," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201901, University of Turin.
    2. Alessandra Canepa & Emilio Zanetti Chini & Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2020. "Global Cities and Local Housing Market Cycles," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 671-697, November.
    3. Zanetti Chini, Emilio, 2020. "Dynamic Asymmetry and Fiscal Policy," MPRA Paper 98499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Canepa, Alessandra & Zanetti Chini, Emilio & Alqaralleh, Huthaifa, 2020. "Global Cities and Local Challenges: Booms and Busts in the London Real Estate Market," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202011, University of Turin.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Density forecasts; Econometric modelling; Evaluating forecasts; Generalized logistic; Industrial production; Nonlinear time series; Point forecasts; Statistical tests; Unemployment.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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