IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Linear and Nonlinear Predictability of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check


  • Juan Cabrera

    () (Ramapo College of New Jersey)

  • Tao Wang

    () (Queens College and the Graduate Center, The City University of New York)

  • Jian Yang

    () (University of Colorado Denver)


This paper examines short-horizon return predictability of ten largest international securitized real estate markets, with special attention paid to exploring possible nonlinearity-in-mean as well as nonlinearity-in-variance predictability. Although international securitized real estate returns are generally not predictable based on commonly used statistical criteria, there is much evidence for the predictability based on economic criteria (i.e., direction of price changes and trading rule profitability), which is more often due to nonlinearity-in-mean. The forecast combinations for various models appear to improve the forecasting performance, while the allowance of data-snooping bias using White’s Reality Check substantially mitigates spurious out-of-sample forecasting performance and weakens otherwise overwhelmingly strong predictability. Overall, there is robust evidence for the predictability in many international securitized real estate markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Cabrera & Tao Wang & Jian Yang, 2011. "Linear and Nonlinear Predictability of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 33(4), pages 565-594.
  • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:4:2011:p:565-594

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Brent W. Ambrose & Hugh O. Nourse, 1993. "Factors Influencing Capitalization Rates," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(2), pages 221-238.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-585 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Zhou, Jian, 2013. "Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 196-204.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:4:2011:p:565-594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.