IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Linear and Nonlinear Predictability of International Securitized Real Estate Returns: A Reality Check

Listed author(s):
  • Juan Cabrera


    (Ramapo College of New Jersey)

  • Tao Wang


    (Queens College and the Graduate Center, The City University of New York)

  • Jian Yang


    (University of Colorado Denver)

This paper examines short-horizon return predictability of ten largest international securitized real estate markets, with special attention paid to exploring possible nonlinearity-in-mean as well as nonlinearity-in-variance predictability. Although international securitized real estate returns are generally not predictable based on commonly used statistical criteria, there is much evidence for the predictability based on economic criteria (i.e., direction of price changes and trading rule profitability), which is more often due to nonlinearity-in-mean. The forecast combinations for various models appear to improve the forecasting performance, while the allowance of data-snooping bias using White’s Reality Check substantially mitigates spurious out-of-sample forecasting performance and weakens otherwise overwhelmingly strong predictability. Overall, there is robust evidence for the predictability in many international securitized real estate markets.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal journal of Real Estate Research.

Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 565-594

in new window

Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:4:2011:p:565-594
Contact details of provider: Postal:
American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323

Web page:

Order Information: Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
Web: Email:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:33:n:4:2011:p:565-594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (JRER Graduate Assistant/Webmaster)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.