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Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques

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  • Zhou, Jian

Abstract

There has accumulated strong evidence in the literature that market beta (β) is time varying. This paper contributes to the literature by studying how to best model the time varying beta for REITs. We include several commonly used methods and evaluate their performances in terms of in-sample beta estimates and out-of-sample beta forecasts. We apply these methods to U.S. equity REITs. Our results overwhelmingly suggest that the state space model is the best performer. Such a conclusion is supported by different evaluation criteria and robust to different sample splitting. Our findings have direct financial implications. The forecasted betas (preferably through the state space model) can be used in many applications such as estimating the cost of capital for the purpose of capital budgeting involving REITs, identifying equity REIT mispricing, evaluating the performance of managed REIT portfolios, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Jian, 2013. "Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 196-204.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:196-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.030
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    3. Alptekin, Aynur & Broadstock, David C. & Chen, Xiaoqi & Wang, Dong, 2019. "Time-varying parameter energy demand functions: Benchmarking state-space methods against rolling-regressions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 26-41.
    4. Nicholas Addai Boamah, 2021. "Integration, investor protection rules and global informational inefficiency of emerging financial markets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(6), pages 1-22, June.
    5. Boamah, Nicholas Addai, 2022. "Segmentation, business environment and global informational efficiency of emerging financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 52-60.
    6. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Festus V. Bekun, 2021. "Flexible Time-Varying Betas in a Novel Mixture Innovation Factor Model with Latent Threshold," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-20, April.
    7. Mokhtar, Maznita & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Are investments in islamic REITs susceptible to forex uncertainty: wavelet analysis," MPRA Paper 63024, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Carmelo Giaccotto & Erasmo Giambona & Yanhui Zhao, 2021. "Short-Term and Long-Term Discount Rates For Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 493-524, October.
    9. Kevin Beaubrun‐Diant & Tristan‐Pierre Maury, 2022. "Corporate focus, residential assets, and the performance of French REITs," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 599-621, April.
    10. Mi, Lin & Benson, Karen & Faff, Robert, 2018. "A specialised volatility index for the new GICS sector - Real estate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 438-446.
    11. Horváth, Lajos & Li, Bo & Li, Hemei & Liu, Zhenya, 2020. "Time-varying beta in functional factor models: Evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional market beta; Modeling techniques; In-sample estimate; Out-of-sample forecast; REITs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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