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Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques

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  • Zhou, Jian

Abstract

There has accumulated strong evidence in the literature that market beta (β) is time varying. This paper contributes to the literature by studying how to best model the time varying beta for REITs. We include several commonly used methods and evaluate their performances in terms of in-sample beta estimates and out-of-sample beta forecasts. We apply these methods to U.S. equity REITs. Our results overwhelmingly suggest that the state space model is the best performer. Such a conclusion is supported by different evaluation criteria and robust to different sample splitting. Our findings have direct financial implications. The forecasted betas (preferably through the state space model) can be used in many applications such as estimating the cost of capital for the purpose of capital budgeting involving REITs, identifying equity REIT mispricing, evaluating the performance of managed REIT portfolios, etc.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Jian, 2013. "Conditional market beta for REITs: A comparison of modeling techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 196-204.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:196-204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.09.030
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    Cited by:

    1. Mokhtar, Maznita & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Are diversification benefits obtainable within the same asset class? New evidence from Malaysian Islamic REITS," MPRA Paper 56990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Meichi Huang & Chih-Chiang Wu, 2015. "Economic benefits and determinants of extreme dependences between REIT and stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 299-327, February.
    3. repec:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:438-446 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional market beta; Modeling techniques; In-sample estimate; Out-of-sample forecast; REITs;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General

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