The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model
Country risk assessment is central to the international investment, which recently has increasingly focused on emerging markets (EM). In this paper we proxy for country risk in EM by using time-varying beta. We extend existing literature by applying a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. After confirming beta is time varying in twenty EM over the period January 1995 to December 2008 we investigate the GARCH (1,1) model and find the t-distribution generates the lowest forecast errors compared to the normal error distribution and a generalised error distribution. In a comparison of previous modelling techniques the results of our modified Diebold-Mariano test statistics suggest that the Kalman Filter model outperforms the GARCH model and the Schwert and Seguin (1990) model. Using a DCC-GARCH model our evidence suggests that considering dynamic betas can improve beta out-of-sample predicting ability and therefore offers potential gains for investors. Finally, we find dynamic betas across EM are strongly associated with each nation's interest rates, US interest rates and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and to a lesser extent the exchange rates. Our results have some similarities to those in previous studies of developed markets in the economic determinants of time-varying beta but differences exist in the results on best model to forecast time-varying beta. These findings have implications for estimating country risk for investment and risk management purposes in EM.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
- Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2001.
"Theoretical and Empirical properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH,"
NBER Working Papers
8554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
- Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
- Carol Alexander, 2000. "Orthogonal Methods for Generating Large Positive Semi-Definite Covariance Matrices," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-06, Henley Business School, Reading University.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 398-404, May.
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin (Ginger) Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Wu, Jin, 2005. "A framework for exploring the macroeconomic determinants of systematic risk," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/04, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Jin (Ginger) Wu, 2005. "A Framework for Exploring the Macroeconomic Determinants of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 11134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Piotr Wdowinski, 2004. "Determinants of Country Beta Risk in Poland," CESifo Working Paper Series 1120, CESifo Group Munich.
- Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
- Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
- Nicolaas Groenewold, 1997. "Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(9&10), pages 1367-1383.
- Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
- Campbell R. Harvey, 1994. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 4621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Choi, Jongmoo Jay & Elyasiani, Elyas & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1992. "The sensitivity of bank stock returns to market, interest and exchange rate risks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 983-1004, September.
- Gangemi, Michael A. M. & Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W., 2000. "Modeling Australia's country risk: a country beta approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 259-276.
- Schwert, G William & Seguin, Paul J, 1990. " Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1129-1155, September.
- Schwert, G.W. & Seguin, P.J., 1988. "Heteroskedasticity In Stock Returns," Papers bc_88-02, Rochester, Business - General.
- G. William Schwert & Paul J. Seguin, 1989. "Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 2956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
- Abell, John D. & Krueger, Thomas M., 1989. "Macroeconomic influences on beta," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 185-193, May.
- R. D. Brooks & R. W. Faff & M. McKenzie, 2002. "Time varying country risk: an assessment of alternative modelling techniques," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 249-274.
- Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent J., 2001. "Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 401-426, August.
- Oetzel, Jennifer M. & Bettis, Richard A. & Zenner, Marc, 2001. "Country risk measures: how risky are they?," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 128-145, July.
- Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:18:y:2009:i:5:p:250-259. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.