Real Estate Risk and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Security Markets
This study reports on the ex-post performance of survivor REITs and RECs over a 14.5-year period covering several business cycles. The results show that the systematic risk and risk-adjusted returns of REITs and RECs are quite different, especially during periods of low growth in real GNP. Relative to the overall stock market, survivor REITs, in particular, equity REITs, exhibited less volatility and higher returns than previous studies revealed. This can be explained by the higher returns, lower volatility, and lower systematic risk of REITs in periods of high growth in real GNP which have dominated the 1980s. The results expand our understanding of the true volatility of real estate, highlighting, at the same time, the need for further research to better understand the relationship between the performance of equity REIT securities and the underlying real estate assets in their portfolios.
Volume (Year): 5 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Leo Grebler & Leland S. Burns, 1982. "Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-151.
- Mike Miles & Tom Mc Cue, 1982. "Historic Returns and Institutional Real Estate Portfolios," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(2), pages 184-199.
- Michael E. Solt & Norman G. Miller, 1985. "Managerial Incentives: Implications for the Financial Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(4), pages 404-423.
- Joe Peek & Eric S. Rosengren, 1988. "The stock market and economic activity," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 39-50.
- James L. Kuhle & Carl H. Walther & Charles H. Wurtzebach, 1986. "The Financial Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 1(1), pages 67-75.
- Patel, Raman C. & Olsen, Robert A., 1984. "Financial determinants of systematic risk in real estate investment trusts," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 481-491, December.
- Sheridan Titman & Arthur Warga, 1986. "Risk and the Performance of Real Estate Investment Trusts: A Multiple Index Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 14(3), pages 414-431.
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