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Nonlinear bubbles in Chinese Stock Markets in the 1990s

Author

Listed:
  • Ehsan Ahmed

    (James Madison University)

  • Honggang Li

    (Beijing Normal University)

  • J. Barkley Rosser

    (James Madison University)

Abstract

A time series of the Shanghai stock index in China for the 1990s is studied for the possible existence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. Three alternative specifications of fundamentals are estimated using VAR models of domestic and international variables. These are subjected to regime switching tests and rescaled range analysis tests. Nulls of no persistence were mostly rejected, suggesting the strong possibility of bubbles. Nonlinearities beyond ARCH effects using the BDS test could not be rejected. The paper also discusses the special circumstances of the stock market in an emerging transition economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ehsan Ahmed & Honggang Li & J. Barkley Rosser, 2006. "Nonlinear bubbles in Chinese Stock Markets in the 1990s," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-18, Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:1-18
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    File URL: http://web.holycross.edu/RePEc/eej/Archive/Volume32/V32N1P1_18.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser Jr. & Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2010. "Emerging Markets and Stock Market Bubbles: Nonlinear Speculation?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(4), pages 23-40, January.

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