Nonlinear bubbles in Chinese Stock Markets in the 1990s
A time series of the Shanghai stock index in China for the 1990s is studied for the possible existence of nonlinear speculative bubbles. Three alternative specifications of fundamentals are estimated using VAR models of domestic and international variables. These are subjected to regime switching tests and rescaled range analysis tests. Nulls of no persistence were mostly rejected, suggesting the strong possibility of bubbles. Nonlinearities beyond ARCH effects using the BDS test could not be rejected. The paper also discusses the special circumstances of the stock market in an emerging transition economy.
Volume (Year): 32 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: c/o Dr. Alexandre Olbrecht, The Anisfield School of Business 205, Ramapo College, 505 Ramapo Valley Road, Ramapo, New Jersey 07430, USA|
Phone: (201) 684-7346
Web page: https://www.quinnipiac.edu/eea/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1996.
"Incomplete markets over an infinite horizon: Long-lived securities and speculative bubbles,"
Journal of Mathematical Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 133-170.
- Magill, M. & Quinzii, M., 1993. "Icomplete Markets Over an Infinite Horizon: Long-Lived Securities and Speculative Bubbles," Papers 9321, Southern California - Department of Economics.
- LeRoy, Stephen F, 1989. "Efficient Capital Markets and Martingales," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 1583-1621, December.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
- Bailey, Warren, 1994. "Risk and return on China's new stock markets: Some preliminary evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 2(2-3), pages 243-260, May.
- Kenneth A. Froot and Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1988.
"Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?,"
Economics Working Papers
8874, University of California at Berkeley.
- Kenneth A. Froot & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1989. "Forward Discount Bias: Is it an Exchange Risk Premium?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 139-161.
- Froot, Kenneth A. & Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1988. "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5w65g4zg, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Malliaropulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "Mean reversion in Southeast Asian stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 355-384, October.
- James B. Bullard & John Duffy, 1998.
"Learning and excess volatility,"
1998-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Farmer, J. Doyne & Joshi, Shareen, 2002.
"The price dynamics of common trading strategies,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 149-171, October.
- Lo, Andrew W, 1991.
"Long-Term Memory in Stock Market Prices,"
Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1279-313, September.
- Andrew W. Lo, 1989. "Long-term Memory in Stock Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 2984, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Tom Doan, . "RSSTATISTIC: RATS procedure to compute R/S Statistic (classical or Lo's modified)," Statistical Software Components RTS00191, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Gerald P. Dwyer & R. W. Hafer, 1989. "Do fundamentals, bubbles or neither determine stock prices? Some international evidence," Working Papers 1989-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Faust, Jon, 1989.
"Supernovas in Monetary Theory: Does the Ultimate Sunspot Rule Out Money?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 872-81, September.
- Jon Faust, 1988. "Supernovas in monetary theory: does the ultimate sunspot rule out money?," Research Working Paper 88-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1990.
" Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 379-95, June.
- J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1995. "A vector autoregressive model of the Saudi Arabian economy," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 79-90, February.
- Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November.
- Barton L. Lipman & Sugato Bhattacharyya, 1995.
"Ex ante versus interim rationality and the existence of bubbles,"
Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 469-494.
- Bhattacharyya, Sugato & Lipman, Barton L, 1995. "Ex ante versus Interim Rationality and the Existence of Bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 469-94, November.
- Sugato Bhattacharyya & Barton L. Lipman, 1992. "Ex Ante versus Interim rationality and the existence of bubbles," Working Papers 851, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- B. Mandelbrot, 1972. "Statistical Methodology for Nonperiodic Cycles: From the Covariance To R/S Analysis," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 1, number 3, pages 259-290 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
- Tirole, Jean, 1982. "On the Possibility of Speculation under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1163-81, September.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
- Lux, T. & M. Marchesi, . "Scaling and Criticality in a Stochastic Multi-Agent Model of a Financial Market," Discussion Paper Serie B 438, University of Bonn, Germany, revised Jul 1998.
- Marsh, Terry A & Merton, Robert C, 1986.
"Dividend Variability and Variance Bounds Tests for the Rationality ofStock Market Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 483-98, June.
- Marsh, Terry A. & Merton, Robert C., 1984. "Dividend variability and variance bounds tests for the rationality of stock market prices," Working papers 1584-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996.
"Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market,"
96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
- Kim, E Han & Singal, Vijay, 2000. "Stock Market Openings: Experience of Emerging Economies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(1), pages 25-66, January.
- J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Marina V. Rosser, 2004. "Comparative Economics in a Transforming World Economy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262681536, June.
- Franklin Allen & Gary Gorton, 1993. "Churning Bubbles," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(4), pages 813-836.
- Flood, Robert P & Garber, Peter M, 1980. "Market Fundamentals versus Price-Level Bubbles: The First Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 745-70, August.
- Canova, Fabio & Ito, Takatoshi, 1991. "The Time-Series Properties of the Risk Premium in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(2), pages 125-42, April-Jun.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January.
- Engel, Charles & Hamilton, James D, 1990. "Long Swings in the Dollar: Are They in the Data and Do Markets Know It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 689-713, September.
- repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
- Shiller, Robert J, 1981.
"Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
- Robert J. Shiller, 1980. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," NBER Working Papers 0456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Ahmed, Ehsan & Rosser, J. Jr. & Sheehan, Richard G., 1988. "A global model of OECD aggregate supply and demand using vector autoregressive techniques," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1711-1729, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eej:eeconj:v:32:y:2006:i:1:p:1-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Victor Matheson, College of the Holy Cross)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.