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Hedging, speculation, and investment in balance-sheet triggered currency crises

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  • Röthig, Andreas
  • Semmler, Willi
  • Flaschel, Peter

Abstract

This paper explores the linkage between corporate risk management strategies, investment, and economic stability in an open economy with a flexible exchange rate regime. Firms use currency futures contracts to manage their exchange rate exposure - caused by balance sheet effects as in Krugman (2000) - and therefore their investments' sensitivity to currency risk. We find that, depending on whether futures contracts are used for risk reduction (i.e., hedging) or risk taking (i.e., speculation), the implied magnitudes of recessions and booms are decreased or increased. Corporate risk management can therefore substantially affect economic stability on the macrolevel.

Suggested Citation

  • Röthig, Andreas & Semmler, Willi & Flaschel, Peter, 2006. "Hedging, speculation, and investment in balance-sheet triggered currency crises," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 168, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:darddp:dar_25377
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stulz, René M., 1984. "Optimal Hedging Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 127-140, June.
    2. Gerald D. Gay & Jouahn Nam, 1998. "The Underinvestment Problem and Corporate Derivatives Use," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(4), Winter.
    3. Albuquerque, Rui, 2007. "Optimal currency hedging," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 16-33.
    4. Peter Tufano, 1998. "Agency Costs of Corporate Risk Management," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 27(1), Spring.
    5. Beatty, Anne, 1999. "Assessing the use of derivatives as part of a risk-management strategy," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 353-357, January.
    6. Fatemi, Ali & Luft, Carl, 2002. "Corporate risk management: Costs and benefits," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 29-38.
    7. Paul R. Krugman, 2000. "Crises : the price of globalization?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 75-106.
    8. DeMarzo, Peter M & Duffie, Darrell, 1995. "Corporate Incentives for Hedging and Hedge Accounting," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 743-771.
    9. Smith, Clifford W. & Stulz, René M., 1985. "The Determinants of Firms' Hedging Policies," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(04), pages 391-405, December.
    10. Froot, Kenneth A & Scharfstein, David S & Stein, Jeremy C, 1993. " Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1629-1658, December.
    11. Guay, Wayne R., 1999. "The impact of derivatives on firm risk: An empirical examination of new derivative users1," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-3), pages 319-351, January.
    12. Kenneth A. Froot & David S. Scharfstein & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "A Framework For Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 7(3), pages 22-33.
    13. Nance, Deana R & Smith, Clifford W, Jr & Smithson, Charles W, 1993. " On the Determinants of Corporate Hedging," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 267-284, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mundell-Fleming-Tobin model; foreign-debt financed investment; currency crises; real crises; currency futures; hedging; speculation;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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