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House price developments and fundamentals in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Finicelli

    () (Banca d'Italia)

Abstract

This paper discusses the limitations of the price-income ratio, the price-rent ratio, and of affordability measures as indicators of housing market conditions. For the purpose of assessing whether house prices are misaligned, the most sensible approach is to calculate the user cost of ownership and the implied theoretical ratio of house prices to rents, and compare the latter with the observed ratio. On the basis of this methodology, US house prices appear to have departed from fundamentals since 2004, cumulating an overvaluation of between 25 and 30 per cent by the third quarter of 2006.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Finicelli, 2007. "House price developments and fundamentals in the United States," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 7, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_7_07
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2007-0007/QEF_7.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:tur:wpaper:2 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrea Beltratti & Claudio Morana, 2008. "International shocks and national house prices," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 14-2008, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Semmler, Willi & Bernard, Lucas, 2012. "Boom–bust cycles: Leveraging, complex securities, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 442-465.
    4. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "International house prices and macroeconomic fluctuations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 533-545, March.
    5. Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Empirical evidence on the reaction speeds of housing prices and sales to demand shocks," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 41-54.
    6. Elias Oikarinen, 2008. "Empirical application of the housing-market no-arbitrage condition: problems, solutions and a Finnish case study," Discussion Papers 39, Aboa Centre for Economics.
    7. Oikarinen, Elias, 2009. "Household borrowing and metropolitan housing price dynamics - Empirical evidence from Helsinki," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 126-139, June.
    8. Fabio C. Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2008. "Permanent and Transitory Dynamics in House Prices and Consumption: Cross-Country Evidence," Working papers 02, Former Department of Economics and Public Finance "G. Prato", University of Torino.
    9. Fabio Bagliano & Claudio Morana, 2010. "Permanent and transitory dynamics in house prices and consumption: some implications for the real effects of the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1-2), pages 151-170.
    10. Hanxiong Zhang & Robert Hudson & Hugh Metcalf & Viktor Manahov, 2015. "Identification of house price bubbles using user cost in a state space model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(56), pages 6088-6101, December.
    11. Alessio Ciarlone, 2015. "House price cycles in emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1), pages 17-52, March.
    12. Tiziana Caliman & Enrico di Bella, 2011. "Spatial Autoregressive Models for House Price Dynamics in Italy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(2), pages 1837-1855.
    13. Caliman, Tiziana & Di Bella, Enrico, 2011. "House Price Dynamics in Italy - La dinamica delle quotazioni immobiliari in Italia," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(1), pages 37-65.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; affordability; user cost; fundamentals; bubbles;

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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