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Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?

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  • William R. White

Abstract

The successful pursuit of the objective of low inflation by central banks in recent decades has also delivered low variability of both inflation and output. At the same time, numerous financial and other "imbalances" (defined here as significant and sustained deviations from historical norms) have emerged. Should these imbalances revert to the mean, there could be significant effects on output growth. Although such an adverse outcome remains only a possibility, the question asked in this paper is whether we might still benefit from a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework in which monetary and regulatory policies gave more attention to avoiding the emergence of imbalances in the first place.

Suggested Citation

  • William R. White, 2006. "Procyclicality in the financial system: do we need a new macrofinancial stabilisation framework?," BIS Working Papers 193, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "Will the Bretton Woods 2 regime unravel soon? the risk of a hard landing in 2005-2006," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
    2. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivo Maes, 2009. "On the origins of the BIS macro-prudential approach to financial stability: Alexandre Lamfalussy and financial fragility," Working Paper Research 176, National Bank of Belgium.
    2. Alasdair Scott & Pau Rabanal & Prakash Kannan, 2009. "Macroeconomic Patterns and Monetary Policy in the Run-up to Asset Price Busts," IMF Working Papers 09/252, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Tomáš Munzi & Petr Hlaváč, 2011. "Vliv cílování inflace na povahu peněžní nabídky a finanční nerovnováhy
      [Inflation Targeting and Its Impact on the Nature of the Money Supply and the Financial Imbalances]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 435-453.
    4. William R White, 2008. "Globalisation and the determinants of domestic inflation," BIS Working Papers 250, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. André Cartapanis, 2011. "La crise financière et les politiques macroprudentielles. Inflexion réglementaire ou nouveau paradigme ?," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(3), pages 349-382.
    6. Jesús Saurina & Carlos Trucharte, 2007. "An Assessment of Basel II Procyclicality in Mortgage Portfolios," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 81-101, October.
    7. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: Challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1426-1461, December.
    8. Heike Joebges & Sebastian Dullien & Alejandro Márquez-Velázquez, 2015. "What causes housing bubbles?," IMK Studies 43-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. repec:taf:cnpexx:v:22:y:2017:i:1:p:92-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Mejra Festić, 2006. "Procyclicality of Financial and Real Sector in Transition Economies," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 315-349.
    11. Anastasia Nesvetailova, 2012. "Liquidity Illusions in the Global Financial Architecture," Chapters,in: Research Handbook on International Financial Regulation, chapter 15 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Bouvatier, Vincent & López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Short-run dynamics in bank credit: Assessing nonlinearities in cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-136.
    13. Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano & Stefano Siviero, 2010. "The transmission of the global financial crisis to the Italian economy. A counterfactual analysis, 2008-2010," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 64, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "The Financial Crisis and the Future of the Eurozone," Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 21, European Economic Studies Department, College of Europe.
    15. Yılmaz AKYÜZ, 2004. "Managing financial instability and shocks," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 19(219), pages 5-17.
    16. Martin Mandel & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Dynamika a rovnováha úspor, investic a úvěru v hospodářském cyklu: příklad České republiky
      [Dynamics and Balance of Savings, Investments, and Credits in Business Cycle: The Case of the Czech Republ
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2015(1), pages 32-56.
    17. Alan S. Blinder, 2006. "Monetary Policy Today: Sixteen Questions and about Twelve Answers," Working Papers 73, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    18. Ivo Maes, 2010. "Alexandre Lamfalussy and the origins of the BIS macro-prudential approach to financial stability," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 63(254), pages 265-292.
    19. Miroslav Plasil & Tomas Konecny & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac, 2015. "In the Quest of Measuring the Financial Cycle," Working Papers 2015/05, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    20. Heike Joebges & Sebastian Dullien & Alejandro Márquez-Velázquez, 2015. "What causes housing bubbles? A theoretical and empirical inquiry," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1501, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    21. Yilmaz Akyuz, 2008. "Managing Financial Instability in Emerging Markets: A Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 2008/4, Turkish Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic policy; financial stability;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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