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Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?

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  • Eric Van Wincoop
  • Kei-Mu Yi

Abstract

The Asia crisis was originally expected to affect the U.S. economy adversely, mainly through reduced exports to, and increased imports from, the crisis countries. However, U.S. GDP growth in 1998, at 4.3 percent, was surprisingly strong. This article examines the effect of the crisis on the U.S. economy, using a quantitative approach that focuses on capital outflows from Asia. It finds that banks were the primary mechanism by which the funds left Asia, and that these funds did not flow directly to the United States. Rather, they went first to offshore banking centers and then to European banks. In addition, the article uses an equilibrium framework to calculate the Asian capital outflows' impact on U.S. GDP. It finds that the overall impact was positive but small.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Van Wincoop & Kei-Mu Yi, 2000. "Asia crisis postmortem: where did the money go and did the United States benefit?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 51-70.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2000:i:sep:p:51-70:n:v.6no.3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    2. Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "Capital Flows in Asia," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 255-296 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Mankiw, N Gregory, 1985. "Consumer Durables and the Real Interest Rate," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 353-362, August.
    4. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Beaudry, Paul & van Wincoop, Eric, 1996. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution: An Exploration Using a US Panel of State Data," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 63(251), pages 495-512, August.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
    8. Marvin Barth & Trevor Dinmore, 1999. "Trade prices and volumes in East Asia through the crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 643, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "Are Trade Linkages Important Determinants of Country Vulnerability to Crises?," NBER Chapters,in: Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets, pages 77-132 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Thomas D. Willett & Aida Budiman & Arthur Denzau & Gab-Je Jo & Cesar Ramos & John Thomas, 2001. "The Falsification of Four Popular Hypotheses about International Financial Behavior during the Asian Crisis," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-06, Claremont Colleges, revised Sep 2001.
    3. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2004. "Currency Market Contagion In The Asia-Pacific Region," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 379-395, December.
    4. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2011. "Currency bid-ask spread dynamics and the Asian crisis: Evidence across currency regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 62-73, February.
    5. Soofi, Abdol S. & Moussavi, Saadat, 2004. "Transmissions of real economic shocks across the Pacific Rim economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(8-9), pages 959-972, December.
    6. Hasan Comert & Mehmet Selman Colak, 2014. "Can Financial Stability be Maintained in Developing Countries after the Global Crisis: The Role of External Financial Shocks?," ERC Working Papers 1411, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2015.
    7. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2003. "Spillovers through banking centers: a panel data analysis of bank flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 483-509, August.

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