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Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation: Theory and International Evidence

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  • Shin-ichi Fukuda
  • Yoshifumi Kon

Abstract

Recently, a dramatic accumulation in foreign exchange reserves has been widely observed in developing countries. This paper explores the possible long-run impacts of this trend on macroeconomic variables in developing countries. We analyze a simple open economy model where increased foreign exchange reserves reduce the costs of liquidity risk. Given the amount of foreign exchange reserves, utility-maximizing representative agents decide consumption, capital stock, and labor input, as well as the amounts of liquid and illiquid external debt. The equilibrium values of these variables depend on the amount of foreign exchange reserves. A rise in foreign exchange reserves increases both liquid and total debt, while shortening debt maturity. [ADBI Working Paper 197]

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  • Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2010. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation: Theory and International Evidence," Working Papers id:3106, eSocialSciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:3106
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    1. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Yoshifumi Kon, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Foreign Exchange Reserve Accumulation: Theory and International Evidence," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Lau, Evan & Moll de Alba, Jaime & Liew, Kim-Hing, 2022. "Debt and economic growth in Asian developing countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 599-612.
    3. Min Zhang & Adam W. Kolkiewicz & Tony S. Wirjanto & Xindan Li, 2015. "The impacts of financial crisis on sovereign credit risk analysis in Asia and Europe," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 2(03), pages 1-57.
    4. Mahraddika, Wishnu, 2019. "Does international reserve accumulation crowd out domestic private investment?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 39-50.
    5. Kwon, Austin, 2017. "Trends in the Accumulation of Net Foreign Reserves since World War II," Studies in Applied Economics 94, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    6. Jeanne Amar & Christelle Lecourt & Valerie Kinon, 2018. "Is the emergence of new sovereign wealth funds a fashion phenomenon?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(4), pages 835-873, November.
    7. Wishnu Mahraddika, 2019. "Does international reserve accumulation crowd out domestic private investment?," Departmental Working Papers 2019-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Capital flows and GDP in emerging economies and the role of global spillovers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 140-163.
    9. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Lee, Sang Seok & Luk, Paul, 2018. "The Asian Financial Crisis and international reserve accumulation: A robust control approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 284-309.
    11. Uz Akdogan, Idil, 2020. "Understanding the dynamics of foreign reserve management: The central bank intervention policy and the exchange rate fundamentals," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 41-55.
    12. Jong-Eun Lee, 2016. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Foreign Reserves: Revisiting the Dornbusch Overshooting Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(2), pages 406-414, May.
    13. Yun Jung Kim & Jing Zhang, 2023. "International Capital Flows: Private Versus Public Flows In Developing And Developed Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 225-260, February.
    14. Shujaat Abbas & Shahida Wizarat & Sadia Mansoor, 2020. "External Debt Distress in South Asia: Evidence from Panel Data Analysis," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 9(2), pages 221-236, December.
    15. Pina, Gonçalo, 2017. "International reserves and global interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 371-385.
    16. Rachna Agrawal & Ashima Verma, 2023. "Investigating the efficiency of foreign exchange reserves using stochastic frontier analysis: Evidence across the globe," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1376-1390, April.
    17. Masahiro Kawai & Shinji Takagi, 2012. "A Proposal for Exchange Rate Policy Coordination in East Asia," Chapters, in: Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Masahiro Kawai & Peter J. Morgan & Shinji Takagi (ed.), 2012. "Monetary and Currency Policy Management in Asia," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14414.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dramatic; foreign exchange reserves; developing countries; macroeconomic; consumption; capital stock; labor input;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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